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Draft Day

Although I am not a big NFL fan, I do enjoy watching the NFL draft.  The draft is to the NFL what college signing day is to college football.  Sure there are differences. The main difference being college players pick their school and the NFL team pick their players, but ultimately the draft and signing day represent opportunity. 

Every February, college fans anxiously await the signed letters of intent from the top recruits so they can begin their bragging about how many championships they will win because Big John Hotshot is coming to their school.  Every April, NFL fans hold their breath hoping their favorite team's executives pick the next Tom Brady.  Although NFL fans are often less optimistic than college fans because there is more history on the players being drafted than the recruit, all fans share that sense that player X is missing piece of the puzzle.

The irony is often the best players are the unknowns, or the least wanted.  Tom Brady was a sixth round pick (#199 overall) by the New England Patriots in 2000.  Not bad for a three time Super Bowl winner.  A.J Hawk was not the stud linebacker recruit in Ohio State's 2002 class. Both Brady and Hawk were good, but neither were in the "can't miss" category.  Conversely, Mitch Mustain is now going to ride the bench at USC instead of Arkansas, Kyle Wright failed to sustain Miami's run of having an elite QB and Mike Williams still wishes he was at USC.  You just never know if a recruit or draftee will work out as planned.  The fan's hope is all will be great, but the reality suggests only a few make it to the top.

I would like to say that I have tempered my enthusiasm in believing that a recruit can win a championship for a team.  I'd be lying if I did.  I think Pryor can deliver the championships for the Buckeyes.  I am not just a Buckeye homer either. I also think Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Joe McNight and Tyrod Taylor could win a championship too. Funny thing is, I don't see these players doing anything special in the NFL.

Which draftees in this year's draft will shine?  Tough to tell.  If I had to pick one player who will make the Hall of Fame, my money is on Pierre Garcon for the Indianapolis Colts.  Who?  Yes, the wide receiver out of Mt. Union.  He's got as good a chance as anyone else.  Peyton should be throwing his way for at least 5-7 more years.  He and Speedy Gonzo could make a great one two punch for the next ten seasons.  You never know.  Two of the best skilled position players to ever play in the NFL (Payton and Rice) came from small schools.

In the end, the NFL draft's true significance lies in the symbolism of hope.  The GM hopes to look good by choosing the right players, the player hopes to be selected in order to reach the highest level in their profession, and the fan hopes their team gets the best players to win a championship.  My interest generally ends there, but I do like watching players like London Fletcher succeed in the NFL.  As an undrafted free agent out of Division III John Carroll,  has had a pretty good NFL career.   

Speaking of hope, the next three years in college football may be the best three year period in a long time because four historically great programs should be national players once again.  Alabama, Nebraska and Notre Dame and UCLA should get back in the discussion for who can win the BCS.  Maybe not 2008, but definitely 2009.   Saban, Pelini, Weis and Neuheisel will turn around their programs.  If there's one question mark, I would say Weis.  The jury is out on Weis' ability to coach at the college level because he has not won a big game yet.  He'll need one this year to the get the program headed in the right direction.       

Who will be this year's Kansas?  I think everyone will be talking about the 2007 college football season twenty years from now.  2007 will be remembered for Appallachian State's huge win over Michigan, Kansas' 12-1 record, Stanford's upset over USC, Hawaii making a run to the BCS, Tim Tebow being the first sophmore to win the Heisman trophy, Kentucky beating LSU in 3 OT's, the BCS Championship being played by LSU (2 losses) and Ohio State (1 loss), Ohio State being blown out a second straight year in the Championship Game, South Florida becoming the 2nd best team in Florida, Mount Union not winning the Division III championship, Pitt beating WVU in the backyard brawl to end the Mountainer's title hopes and Michigan beating Florida in the Capital One Bowl to send Lloyd Carr into retirement with a win.  I hope 2008 is even better.

Every season there seems to be a team that comes out of nowhere and becomes a Top 10 team overnight.  Last year, Kansas was that team.  Kansas was average over the last few years, but blew up last year.  Seasoned veterans, a favorable schedule, a weakened Big 12 North and limited injuries helped Kansas along the way, but they finished 12-1 with an Orange Bowl victory over Virginia Tech.  Not bad.  Illinois was a close second.  If they would have won the Rose Bowl, I would have picked the Illini over the Jayhawks.

This year has several teams that fit into this category.  First, North Carolina. Their road games are winnable - Rutgers, Miami, Virginia, Maryland and Duke.  Home games are tough, but manageable - BC, Va Tech, UConn and ND.  They can 7 or 8 out of those games.  Oh yeah, NC is entering year two under Butch Davis. 

Second, Nebraska.  Oklahoma, Va Tech and Missouri will be tall orders, but if they can 1 or 2 of these three games, Nebraska will likely be a ten win team this year.  Teams with new coaches tend to struggle as new schemes are implemented, but Pelini is a seasoned coach who can work throught growing pains.

Third,  Texas A&M.  Tough call considering the coaching change, but the team has veteran leadership and a manageable schedule.  The away games are all winnable - Baylor, Texas, New Mexico, Ok State and Iowa State.  Home games are tough, but if these lose only 2, that is a ten win season.  If A&M can limit the turnovers, get good special teams play and avoid major injuries, 2008 might be a special year. 

Other teams on the radar, but definite longshots.  I expect these teams to improve dramatically, but not enough to be special.  Minnesota - easy non-conference schedule,  Arizona - non-conference schedule fairly easy, PAC 10 road games manageable, and Iowa - non-conference schedule all winnable, no Ohio State, Michigan in conference plus tough games at home.

Guilty pleasure picks - Northwestern, Georgia Tech, Lousiville, Auburn and UCLA.