So most of the preseason magazines are out on the shelves. The favorites are the usual suspects, USC, Florida, Georgia and Ohio State. Personally, I feel Oklahoma has the best route to the championship game. Not to mention, the Sooners did play in the last two BCS Title games played in Miami.
I rarely try to downgrade a team's schedule because I believe every team has a landmine or two to dodge during the regular season, but Oklahoma has a fairly manageable schedule compared to the favorites. Their toughest game will be Texas which is at a neutral site and at Texas A&M which is learning a new system under Mike Sherman. The Sooners get Cincinnati, Kansas, TCU, Nebraska and Texas Tech at home. They avoid Colorado and North favorite Missouri. Easy, no. Manageable, yes.
People will think I am nuts, but I also think Wisconsin has an manageable road to Miami. They play at Fresno State and Michigan, but get Pa State, Illinois and Ohio State at home. As a Buckeye fan, I am well aware of the recent battles Wisky has given OSU. USC will be one battle, but Madison may be the landmine in the Big 10 for the Buckeyes. Wisconsin returns enough starters to run the table and land a slot in the title game.
An Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin BCS title game has about as much appeal as a a third straight appearance by my Buckeyes(I'm a homer, but a realist). I should note that Herbstreit was correct when he argued that OSU belonged in the Rose Bowl last season. The Buckeyes earned the right to be in New Orleans because everyone else lost, but 2008 (not 2007) was the year everyone was pointing to when we would probably play for the Championship again. Anyway, like it or not, the Sooners and the Badgers have legitimate shots this season.
Out of the favorites, I think Florida will likely play in the BCS title game. The SEC is brutal, but they get LSU and South Carolina at home. The do play Miami and Florida State, but they should win those rivalry games. Georgia and Tennessee will be tough. If they split these two games, the Gators should play Auburn for the SEC Championship and a likely birth into the title game. These are big "ifs" but they return Tebow, a solid defense and maybe a running game for a change - Moody is the unknown.
The winner of the USC/Ohio State game also has a good chance. If USC wins, they should cruise because the PAC 10 is down, except for Arizona State. If Ohio State wins, they still have Wisconsin and Illinois on the road. Either way, the winner should be a favorite to play in Miami.
I also like Auburn and Missouri. Missouri has a manageable schedule and if Auburn's new spread offense hums early, they could be poised for another SEC title run. Auburn's mid October date in Morgantown might be a classic. Two spread offenses doing battle on a Thursday night. I am inclined to take WVU only because Auburn will be coming off three bruising SEC games, LSU, Tennessee and Arkansas. The Tigers may be banged up a bit.
In my next post, I will discuss sleepers.
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