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Who will be strong this season?

So the argument continues about conference strength.  Instead of going back and forth about the past, I decided to look at the upcoming season to determine what factors may contribute to a conference being strong.  I think there are four factors:

1.  Returning Starting QBs
2.  Returning OL/DL starters
3.  Returning Kickers
4.  Stability of coaching staff - no major turnovers

Returning Starting QBs.  No surprise with this factor.  The quarterback is the engine that drives the offense.  Calls plays, ensures proper alignment, keeps the timing, throws the ball, hands the ball off, calls audibles and deals with more scrutiny than any other position.  Generally, QBs get better as they get more experienced.  Thus, I believe the conference with the most returning starting QBs are likely to field stronger teams and subsequently make a conference tougher.  Here are the returning starting QBs for the six BCS conferences:

Big 12 (11)

Big 10 (8)

ACC (8)

SEC (6)

Big East (5)

Pac 10 (5)

Returning OL/DL starters.  I think this is pretty much understood, but without a good OL or DL, teams struggle.  Depth is also a critical component as many college linemen get injured. 

The SEC, Big 12 and Big 10 look solid on their returning starters for OL/DL.  All the top teams have a good amount of returning starters and most have depth.  The returning OL/DL in the ACC, Big East and Pac 10 are ok, but there are several teams with question marks.  The projected top teams, USC, WVU and Clemson should be fine though. 

Returning kickers.  The kicking game in college is more important than it is in the NFL.  Limiting KO returns, hitting long range field goals and pinning the opposing team inside their 20 yard line often mean the difference between winning and losing.  Ohio State won the 2002 Championship largely on the strength of its special teams.

In general, the Big East, PAC 10, Big 10 and SEC all return  a majority of their placekickers and punters.  Most of the pre-season ranked teams return both of the Kickers.  A majority of the teams in the ACC and Big 12 are replacing at least one starting kicker.  However, Clemson and Missouri both have their starters back and Oklahoma, Wake and Tex Tech are replacing just one kicker.

Finally, stability in coaching staffs (HC, OC, DC ) helps contribute to the strength of a conference.  System familiarity, consistency in coaching methods, recruiting and player development are all better when coaching staffs stay in place every season.

The Big 10 had the least amount of turnover after the 2007 season.  The obvious major change was Michigan with Lloyd Carr's resignation and the hiring of Rich Rodriguez.  Other than that, there were four coordinator changes and no HC changes. The ACC also remained fairly stable.  There are new staffs at Ga Tech and Duke, but all the top teams have the same coaching staffs this season. The same is true for the PAC 10.  Wash St and UCLA have new staffs, but USC, Cal, Ariz St, Oreg, Oreg St had no turnover so the PAC 10 grades favorably on coaching stability.

The SEC had two HC changes, Houston Nutt to Ol Miss and Bobby Petrino to Arkansas.  Since these programs are not expected to be top level SEC teams this season, it is fair to say the HC changes will have minimal impact on the SEC this season.  There were 12 coordinator changes though which could impact some teams.  SC and Auburn have new OC's and DC's, TN has a new OC and LSU has a new DC.  The biggest change is Tony Franklin taking over as OC at Auburn.  If the Tigers can quickly switch from West Coast to the Spread, Auburn might win the SEC this year.

The Big 12 had some significant coaching changes, but that actually might be a good thing.  Texas A&M, Baylor and Nebraska all have new HC's and staffs. Tex AM significantly underperformed under Fanchione, Baylor started to make some progress under Morriss, but nothing major and Nebraska fell apart under Callahan.  Sherman will not make much of a difference at AM, but Briles will make Baylor more competitive and Pelini will immediately transform a pathetic Nebraska defense into a strong one.  Look for major improvement out of the Huskers in 08.  Four other schools changed coordinators (Tex, KSt,Kan,Ok St) so there will be different looks in the Big 12 this season.

Finally, the Big East had the most coaching changes after the 2007 season.  WVU has a new HC, DC and OC.  Bill Stewart has been on staff for nine seasons so continuity may continue, but any HC change requires learning some part of a new systyem so a dropoff may occur.  In addtion to WVU, Pitt, Louisville, Cuse, Cinci and Uconn are all replacing one coordinator.   The changes will likely impact these programs.

The Big Ten appears to have the best chance at improving the overall strength of the conference this year.  Coaching changes are minimal, eight teams have returning QB's, the lines are deep and the kickers are mostly seasoned.  This may be a problem for Ohio State who has enjoyed two seasons of easier in conference play.  Going to Wisky, MSU and Illinois will be much more difficult than the experts are predicting.

The SEC and Big 12 will be solid.  The returning QBs in the Big 12 alone will help elevate the strength of the conference.  While OK appears to be a favorite for a third straight title, Missou, Tex Tech and Texas should battle the Sooners until the end.  The lack of returning starting QBs in the SEC should not impact the strength of the conference too much because the lines are deep and seasoned which will give the new QB's time to develop. 

The Big East and PAC 10 will definitely be good, but there might be some dropoff.  Coaching changes and returning starters will hurt some teams in big games.  If USC beats Ohio State on Sept 13th, they will play in the BCS title game once again.  I would say WVU will join them, but I have a strong feeling that Auburn will beat WVU in October ending Pat White's chances of winning the Heisman and a national title. 
The ACC appears to be a year away from being an elite conference.  Clemson is the top dog, but you can never count on Bowden to deliver.  BC lost Matt Ryan, Va Tech lost too many leaders, Fla St and Miami are both in transition and Wake is just not good enough to carry the torch.  NC is the wild card, but Coach Davis' squad is still too young to contend for the title.  Look for 2009 for an ACC team to make a run at the BCS title. 

Conference Strength Part II

I've had many discussions (arguments really) with fans from all the conferences about my conference strength position.  By far, the SEC fans are most disturbed.  I hold strong to my position. 

The fans, players and coaches of the SEC claim they do not have to schedule difficult non-conference games because the conference is tough enough to warrant the rankings.  So I put this argument to a test.  For this claim to be valid, the teams that the SEC champion has to beat to win their conference must be beating their non-conference opponents (from BCS conferences).  Again, the SEC claims there are no weeks off in the SEC compared to other leagues where some teams only have to show up to win.

 

My rebuttal.  Clemson pounds SC every year.  Louisville (except 2007) pounds on KY every year, West VA has pounded Miss St the last two years, Missouri pounded Ol Miss the last two years.

Tenn

has lost twice to ND and once to

Cal

in the last four years,

Auburn

lost to S. Fla last year, Ala lost to Fla St and La Monroe last year, Vandy lost to Wake and Michigan last two years, Arkansas lost to USC (50-14) in 2006 when

Arkansas

won the SEC West with McFadden.  How many examples of non-conference losses need to be mentioned before it is credible to argue that the SEC is just like every other conference?  It is strong on the top, avg in the middle, weak on the bottom.  Since the other conferences are beating the same teams that the SEC champion has to beat to win the SEC, I think it is reasonable to suggest that the SEC is not as superior as a lot of people want it to be. 

 

The only conclusion one can make right now if the SEC’s top team has been better than Big Ten’s top team the last two seasons.  With that in mind, the head to head record for Big Ten/SEC last ten years is 50/50.  Last two seasons is 3-3 – two seasons which most experts would argue the Big Ten has been down. If the SEC is so tough and the Big Ten so weak, the record should be at least 5-1 if not 6-0.   Instead, the record is even.  If you look at the seasons when the SEC/Big Ten has won the BCS title, the Big Ten is 7-5 against the SEC.  So, in the seasons when the SEC has been crowned the champion and inevitably leads to their fan base/coaches/players claiming superiority, they have a losing record against the lowly Big Ten head to head. 

 

Thinking something is true does not make it true.  The only true measuring stick is head to head.  Over the last five seasons, the head to head results prove the SEC loses more than it wins when their teams play non-conference games against BCS conference schools. Bowl games are the exception for the last two years, but there are mismatches to consider such as  2's vs 3's, bowl location and time off between a team's last game and bowl game. 

The SEC is a great conference with a strong tradition of winning championships.  The fan base is intensely rabid.  The SE has some of the best high school talent in the country which usually ends up in the SEC.  I love attending and watching SEC games.  All of this does not mean the SEC is the best conference, not does it mean it is the deepest conference.  All that can be concluded is the SEC has had the BCS Champion four times. 

The All Name Team

All the pre-season magazines have their top lists.  First, Second, Third team All Americans, All Conference, etc.  In the spirit of Madden and Berman, what about the All Name Team?  Here are my picks for the best names in college football this season:

QB's:

Dan LeFevour - Central Michigan
Juice WIlliams - Illinois

RB's

Chris "Beanie" Wells - Ohio State
Javorskie Lane - Texas A&M

WR

Demarious Thomas - Ga Tech
Juaquin Iglesias - Oklahoma

TE

Bear Pascoe - Fresno St
Zeek Zacharie - ULM

FB

Asaph Schwapp - ND
Dan Lawlor - Penn St

OL

Maurkice Pouncey - Florida
Sergio Render - Va Tech
Ciron Black - LSU
Eric Vanden Heuvel - Wisconsiin
Micah Kia - UCLA

DL

Pannel Egboh - Stanford
Neefy Moffett - Florida St
Ziggy Hood - Missouri
Ndamukong Suh - Nebraska

LB

Obi Ezeh - Michigan
Rashad Bobino - Texas
Kaluka Maiava - USC

CB/S

Alterraun Verner - UCLA
Captain Munnerlyn - South Carolina
Chimdi Chekwa - Ohio State
Chima Nwachukwu - Washington State

Kickers

Britt Barefoot - Southern Miss
Swaze Waters - UAB

Return Specialists

Jahvid Best - Cal
Sammie Stroughter - Oregon State

Conference Strength

Check any college football message board and you will quickly notice how any topic quickly changes into a discussion about conference strength.  Keep in mind, these are just fans talking and no one drinks the Kool-Aid better than a rabid fan base.  Ironically, these same fans are the first to criticize their QB or coach for calling a running play when clearly a pass would have produced a touchdown worth 50 points. 

The question is interesting though.  Which conference is the toughest right now?  Pundits, writers and TV personalities generally think the SEC is the toughest conference right now.  Based on their analysis, I can only conclude that the SEC schools win every game against every opponent, and every good player in the NFL is from an SEC school. 

What criteria should be used to evaluate the strength of a conference?  BCS titles?  This is a decent variable, but not necessarily a good measure because it could just mean the top team from one conference was better than the top team from another conference.  Plus, the BCS has only matched the top two teams three times in ten years.  Plenty of mismatches have occurred.  How about the number of teams ranked in the Top 25 in the final AP and Coaches polls?  Again, decent variable, but what if certain teams that are ranked did not play any good teams out of conference?  Are good wins in your own conference enough to warrant a strong final ranking?  Perhaps.  How about bowl records?  This is probably the weakest of variables because the head to head match ups are often skewed.  For example, the 2007 Insight Bowl featured the #2 ACC team (BC) playing the #8 Big Ten team (Mich St).  Not exactly the fairest of match ups. 

The best way to measure the strength of a conference is regular season, non-conference head to head games against BCS schools.  This variable allows you to see how teams from one conference fare against quality teams from the other conferences. 

Since the SEC is the darling of most people right now, let's see how they have fared since 2003 

 

Non-Conference regular season records against BCS school opponents are:

 

1. Big 10  43-31

2. ACC  43-49

3. Big East 34-36

4. PAC 10 24-32

5. Big 12 25-27

6. SEC 30-33

 

Not only is the Big Ten second in total non conference games played against BCS schools during the regular season (ACC is 1^st with 92), the Big Ten is the only conference with a winning record against non-conference opponents from BCS schools.

Perhaps the wins have been against ranked teams from other conferences.  Not exactly.

Here are some regular season non-conference losses against BCS opponents for the SEC since 2002.

Oklahoma(2x), USC (4x), Ga Tech (3x), S Fla, Miami (4x), Fla St (2x), Va Tech, Tech Tech (2X), Lousiville (4x), Indiana, Missouri (2x), Oregon (2x), Virginia, Clemson (4x), ND (2x), CAL, Michigan, West Virginia (2X), Rutgers and Wake. By my count, the SEC has 7 losses to the PAC 10, 6 losses to the Big 12, 16 losses to the ACC, 8 losses to the Big East and two losses to ND.

Perhaps the SEC plays more road non-conference games against BCS schools.  Nope.

Out of the 30 non-conference wins the SEC has against BCS schools since 2003, only 14 have been away games. Five of the away games were

Fla

over

Fla

State

and Ga over Ga Tech – not exactly tough road wins during the last 5 seasons. By comparison, the Big 10 has 19 road wins in non-conference play against BCS schools.

Are there any bright spots? Yes.

LSU and GA do stick out those because they only have one loss between them in non-conference play (Va Tech beat LSU in 2003).

Are there anymore strengths?

The SEC is 23-14 in bowl games since 2003.

What does all of this mean?

My point is not that the SEC is an inferior conference. Instead, I am rejecting the idea that the SEC does not need to play a strong non-conference schedule because the conference is tough enough.   The argument that the SEC is the toughest conference because they’ve won four BCS Championships is not entirely strong.  Again, perhaps the SEC has had just the best team and the rest of the teams were good, avg and poor – see the losses to the other conferences over the last six seasons – plenty of them. The teams that the SEC champion is beating to get to the title game are also being beaten by the other conferences in non-conference regular season play – REGULARLY and OFTEN.  You cannot argue that LSU beating Ole Miss is a more quality win than

Missouri

beating Ole Miss in the same season. My position is the SEC would not play in the BCS Championship as often if they played better non-conference opponents more consistently.   Additionally, maybe some of their teams would not be ranked as high if they played better non-conference opponents. 

To add some color to conference strength, the SEC has won the BCS Championship in the 1998, 2003, 2006 and 2007 seasons.  In those same years, head to head, the Big Ten is 6-2 against the SEC in bowl games – not including Fla/LSU’s wins over OSU – so the actual head to head is 6-4 in the Big Ten’s favor. If you include the year OSU won in 2002, the record head to head is 7-5 in the Big Ten’s favor.

Would anyone argue that the Big Ten is better than the SEC right now?  Doubtful, but the head to head record suggests the Big Ten is better, just not at the top.  The likely conclusion is all the conferences have 1 great team, 2-3 good teams, 2-3 average teams and 2-3 bad teams.