So the argument continues about conference strength. Instead of going back and forth about the past, I decided to look at the upcoming season to determine what factors may contribute to a conference being strong. I think there are four factors:
1. Returning Starting QBs
2. Returning OL/DL starters
3. Returning Kickers
4. Stability of coaching staff - no major turnovers
Returning Starting QBs. No surprise with this factor. The quarterback is the engine that drives the offense. Calls plays, ensures proper alignment, keeps the timing, throws the ball, hands the ball off, calls audibles and deals with more scrutiny than any other position. Generally, QBs get better as they get more experienced. Thus, I believe the conference with the most returning starting QBs are likely to field stronger teams and subsequently make a conference tougher. Here are the returning starting QBs for the six BCS conferences:
Big 12 (11)
Big 10 (8)
ACC (8)
SEC (6)
Big East (5)
Pac 10 (5)
Returning OL/DL starters. I think this is pretty much understood, but without a good OL or DL, teams struggle. Depth is also a critical component as many college linemen get injured.
The SEC, Big 12 and Big 10 look solid on their returning starters for OL/DL. All the top teams have a good amount of returning starters and most have depth. The returning OL/DL in the ACC, Big East and Pac 10 are ok, but there are several teams with question marks. The projected top teams, USC, WVU and Clemson should be fine though.
Returning kickers. The kicking game in college is more important than it is in the NFL. Limiting KO returns, hitting long range field goals and pinning the opposing team inside their 20 yard line often mean the difference between winning and losing. Ohio State won the 2002 Championship largely on the strength of its special teams.
In general, the Big East, PAC 10, Big 10 and SEC all return a majority of their placekickers and punters. Most of the pre-season ranked teams return both of the Kickers. A majority of the teams in the ACC and Big 12 are replacing at least one starting kicker. However, Clemson and Missouri both have their starters back and Oklahoma, Wake and Tex Tech are replacing just one kicker.
Finally, stability in coaching staffs (HC, OC, DC ) helps contribute to the strength of a conference. System familiarity, consistency in coaching methods, recruiting and player development are all better when coaching staffs stay in place every season.
The Big 10 had the least amount of turnover after the 2007 season. The obvious major change was Michigan with Lloyd Carr's resignation and the hiring of Rich Rodriguez. Other than that, there were four coordinator changes and no HC changes. The ACC also remained fairly stable. There are new staffs at Ga Tech and Duke, but all the top teams have the same coaching staffs this season. The same is true for the PAC 10. Wash St and UCLA have new staffs, but USC, Cal, Ariz St, Oreg, Oreg St had no turnover so the PAC 10 grades favorably on coaching stability.
The SEC had two HC changes, Houston Nutt to Ol Miss and Bobby Petrino to Arkansas. Since these programs are not expected to be top level SEC teams this season, it is fair to say the HC changes will have minimal impact on the SEC this season. There were 12 coordinator changes though which could impact some teams. SC and Auburn have new OC's and DC's, TN has a new OC and LSU has a new DC. The biggest change is Tony Franklin taking over as OC at Auburn. If the Tigers can quickly switch from West Coast to the Spread, Auburn might win the SEC this year.
The Big 12 had some significant coaching changes, but that actually might be a good thing. Texas A&M, Baylor and Nebraska all have new HC's and staffs. Tex AM significantly underperformed under Fanchione, Baylor started to make some progress under Morriss, but nothing major and Nebraska fell apart under Callahan. Sherman will not make much of a difference at AM, but Briles will make Baylor more competitive and Pelini will immediately transform a pathetic Nebraska defense into a strong one. Look for major improvement out of the Huskers in 08. Four other schools changed coordinators (Tex, KSt,Kan,Ok St) so there will be different looks in the Big 12 this season.
Finally, the Big East had the most coaching changes after the 2007 season. WVU has a new HC, DC and OC. Bill Stewart has been on staff for nine seasons so continuity may continue, but any HC change requires learning some part of a new systyem so a dropoff may occur. In addtion to WVU, Pitt, Louisville, Cuse, Cinci and Uconn are all replacing one coordinator. The changes will likely impact these programs.
The Big Ten appears to have the best chance at improving the overall strength of the conference this year. Coaching changes are minimal, eight teams have returning QB's, the lines are deep and the kickers are mostly seasoned. This may be a problem for Ohio State who has enjoyed two seasons of easier in conference play. Going to Wisky, MSU and Illinois will be much more difficult than the experts are predicting.
The SEC and Big 12 will be solid. The returning QBs in the Big 12 alone will help elevate the strength of the conference. While OK appears to be a favorite for a third straight title, Missou, Tex Tech and Texas should battle the Sooners until the end. The lack of returning starting QBs in the SEC should not impact the strength of the conference too much because the lines are deep and seasoned which will give the new QB's time to develop.
The Big East and PAC 10 will definitely be good, but there might be some dropoff. Coaching changes and returning starters will hurt some teams in big games. If USC beats Ohio State on Sept 13th, they will play in the BCS title game once again. I would say WVU will join them, but I have a strong feeling that Auburn will beat WVU in October ending Pat White's chances of winning the Heisman and a national title.
The ACC appears to be a year away from being an elite conference. Clemson is the top dog, but you can never count on Bowden to deliver. BC lost Matt Ryan, Va Tech lost too many leaders, Fla St and Miami are both in transition and Wake is just not good enough to carry the torch. NC is the wild card, but Coach Davis' squad is still too young to contend for the title. Look for 2009 for an ACC team to make a run at the BCS title.
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