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Georgia Bulldogs

USC, Florida and GA dropped like hot potatoes.  USC lost on the road to an average Oregon State team, Florida battled with Ol Miss at home, and Georgia was throttled by Bama at home, at night, during a "Blackout."  I wonder if Georgia's school President and Athletic Director will be clamoring for a playoff this year?

I believe USC and Florida can earn their way back into the BCS Title discussion.  Georgia should make travel plans for New Orleans, Orlando or Tampa.  I am only applying the same logic to the Dawgs as the Dawgs applied to USC last Friday and OSU on Sept. 14th.  If you lose, you die.  Close to 100,000 Bulldog fans said on Sept 14th, that the Buckeyes sucked and should not be allowed back into the BCS discussion.  Fine.  I can accept that.  OSU has not shown up in big games, and USC throttled a Beanieless team by 32 points at home. This should end the title talk discussion. 

Will Georgia fans accept the same treatment?  They lost by eleven at home, but were down 31-0 at halftime.  The game was not close.  Ohio State and USC lost on the road, Georgia lost at home.  They should be punished more for this loss. 

Looking back at 2007, Georgia felt robbed because they were left out of the BCS title game.  Their logic is beyond me considering they lost 2 games - 1 in Sept to a non-bowl eligible South Carolina team, and were destroyed by a vanilla Tennessee team 35-14 in October.  Robbed?  Of what?  Georgia did not even win their own mediocre SEC East division. 

Is Georgia a good team?  Yes.  Are they a great team.  Hardly.  The Dawgs defense is not on the same level as LSU and Auburn.  The passing game is suspect at this point.  The O-line is good, but not great.  I suspect that this discussion will not matter too much because Georgia will likely lose two more games this season.  

Similar to 2007, this season is only going to get wackier in the coming weeks.  You can bet that at least one upset will happen each week.  I think Bama is on upset alert this week.  Kentucky is 4th in FBS in Team Defense.  Granted, the Wildcats have not played a strong schedule, but they could be the spoiler.  This will be a strong test for the Tide.  Clear it, and they have a two game schedule, At LSU and home against Auburn. 

Week Five Match Ups

While the 2008 season has been fairly bland so far, there are some intriguing games this weekend that will provide some color.  Here are five match ups that will have a big impact on the overall landscape:

1.  Nebraska v. Virginia Tech.  Nebraska is undefeted, but has not faced a quality opponent.  The Cornhuskers offense is ranked 20th in the FBS.  The Hokies D is young and giving up over 320 yards per game.  This will be a close game with special teams playing a big role in the outcome.  I like Nebraska 28-24. Regardless of outcome, the winner will gain a lot of confidence for the rest of the season.
2.  Miami v. North Carolina.  North Carolina blew their game against Va Tech last week.  Miami looked strong in a win over Texas A&M.  Butch Davis beat his old team last year, but the Hurricanes are much improved this season.  Miami can prove it is further along in the rebuilding process, or the Tar Heels can prove they are now a legitimate threat in the ACC.  I like Miami in a close battle, 27-21.
3.  Penn St v. Illinois.  The general concensus is Penn State is legitimate, and will contend for the Big 10 title.  The Nittany Lions have looked good against inferior opponents, but how will the offense look against a speedy D?  Though Illinois is good, they are trying to gain some momentum.  The Fighting Illini have not looked good in their wins, and Missou easily beat them to start the season.  Penn State is at home, the game is at night, I think they roll 38-17.
4.  Florida State v. Colorado.  Talk about two programs headed in different directions.  Colorado is improving and should do well in the Big 12 North.  Florida State got embarrassed by Wake last week for the third straight year.  If FSU loses at home two weeks in a row, their season will be a disaster.  I like the Buffs, 28-27. 
5.  Auburn v. Tennessee.  The Tigers lost a close one at home to LSU last week.  The Volunteers were torched by Florida at home.  Tennessee needs this game to salvage their season.  Auburn needs to win to stay in the hunt for the SEC West title.  Auburn wins with a strong second half, 21-10. 

The Georgia/Alabama game is the wildcard.  I'm not convinced Bama is legitimate yet, nor am I convinced Georgia has the offensive weapons to make a serious run at the SEC title.  This game will go a long way in proving who will be in the hunt at the end of November. 

1/3 of the season is over, what do we know?

The college football regular season is one third complete for most teams.  This time last season, it appeared the whole world had gone crazy with upsets and surprises occurring almost weekly.  2008 has been less dramatic and I would argue this season has been disappointing.  Alabama/Clemson, USC/OSU, GA/ASU were essentially duds.  The only top ranked game that has has been exciting is LSU/Auburn last weekend. 

What do we know about this season?  Here are some well knowns right now:

1.  The Big 10 is better and deeper this season.  Michigan St, Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota and Iowa are all better teams this year.  None are great, but they are better.  Add in what appears to be a strong Pa St and Wisconsin to go along with OSU and Illinois, the depth is much better this year than 2006 and 2007. Don't be surprised if preseason favorite, OSU, drops two league games.

2.  The PAC 10 is much weaker this season.  Besides USC, the whole league is average to poor and in my opinion has been a huge disappointment.  USC should be cautious - not in losing a league game, but in not playing quality opponents each week to get better (see OSU 2006/07).  Sadly, the best team USC will face all season is their 2nd team in practice.

3.  Colorado, Vanderbilt, Uconn, Northwestern and Bama are all undefeated and likely to have good seasons.  

4. Texas is good, but will only gain recognition after a signature win.  Texas has been up and down the last few seasons, but it appears the pieces are in play for a run at the South title. 

5.  LSU's defensive line can carry it to the BCS Championship game.  After watching LSU play Auburn, there is little doubt the Bayou Tigers are ready for another run.  I still think Florida is the SEC team to beat right now, but do not sleep on LSU.

6.  Terrelle Pryor and Chris Wells make OSU an offensive threat.  With these two on the field together, the Buckeyes will win the Big 10.  Separately, the Buckeyes lose to Wisconsin or Penn St or both.   

The season is in full swing and we're not even into October yet.  I am looking forward to the next third.  It is time to separate the men from the boys. 

Week Four Recap

Not to downgrade any of the good games that happened this past Saturday, but the only great game was Auburn/LSU.  These two titans clashed in Jordan Hare, and unlike the USC OSU game, the Tigers vs. Tigers game exceeded the pre-game marketing hype.  LSU won the game 26-21, but the mistakes Auburn made cost them the game.  This year, a bad punt gave LSU great field position to mount the go ahead touchdown with less than a minute to play.  LSU now has the inside track to the SEC West title.

Some of the games that surprised a few people, but really should have been expected:

1.  Florida demolishing Tennessee. Similar to USC, Florida is looking real strong right now in all phases of the game.  Tennessee is not a good team, and the loss of David Cutcliffe (again) is beginning to show its ugly head on the offensive side of the ball.
2.  Michigan State over Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish beat Michigan with 100 or so turnovers and barely beat a pathetic San Diego St team.  Dantonio's Spartans are much more disciplined and run the ball effectively.  Though the outcome was in doubt in the fourth quarter, anyone watching the game knew Michigan State was the more dominant team.  Mich St will be a tough team to beat in Big Ten play.
3.  Wake Forest suffocating Florida State.  I think Florida State's drop from the top of the college football world is probably the second most important story of this decade behind USC's dominance.  How does a team that dominated the game for 20 years become an afterhtought in a weak ACC?  Wake is a good team, solid in most phases of the game, but Florida State has lost three straight to the Demon Deacons and scored only 3 points in two of the loses.  WOW.  I thought Jimbo Fisher was suppossed to ressurrect the offense?
4.  Boise State steamrolling Oregon in Autzen Stadium.  Has anyone watch the Broncos play over the last eight years?  They are 91-16 in that time span with a few wins over some quality programs.  Oregon is ok, but the loss of Dixon and Stewart's offensive production is hurting the young Ducks.  Once again, Boise showed that it belongs in the BCS discussion. 
5.  NC State over East Carolina.  The Pirates are a good team and will likely win Conference USA, but NC State was due for a win.  Tom O' Brien is a solid coach and his team was prepared to play.  ECU played well at times, but the mistakes cost them in the end.  Congrats to the Wolfpack on a good win.

Mindboggling thought of the week:  What has happened to Rutgers?  Over the last few seasons, Rutgers was solid fundamentally, made few mistakes, strong running game and played resilient defense.  Where's the axe chopping the wood mentality now?  Teel's punching a teammate at the end of the game against Navy reflects a team that is lost. 

September Surprise, October Demise

Every season there seems to be a few teams that start the season on fire, and then quickly fade as the season hits the midway point.  The media and pundits jump on the bandwagon, drink some Kool-Aid, buy tickets for the BCS Championship Game and then whammo.  One loss turns into two, and suddenly this September darling is October's nightmare. 

Here are my picks for a October demise:  (note, I think most are good teams, they are just not great teams)

1.  Iowa.  Coach Ferentz's team is much improved this season and has looked good beating some inferior teams.  Beating your rival is always a good thing, but I think there are some kinks in the armor.  In October, the Hawkeyes play at Mich St and Indiana, and play Wisconsin at home.  They will lose two of these games.
2.  Penn State.  This is not your average Jo Pa team.  In three games, the Nittany Lions are averaging 556 yards of offense.  The opponents have been avg to weak, but Penn St has still been overly impressive in the victories.  I think depth will be a concern in Big 10 play, and the defense may wear down a bit.  The October schedule includes road games at Purdue, Wisconsin and Ohio State and a home date against Michigan.  I see a split.
3.  Texas Tech.  Similar to Penn St, Texas Tech is an offensive juggernaut right now.  Isn't that the case every season though?  The Red Raiders struggled against Nevada - won by 16.  By comparison, Missouri beat Nevada last week by 52 points.  October brings away games at K State, Tex AM and Kansas, and a home date with Nebraska.  They should be favored in every game and win every game, but I predict a loss or two. 
4.  Vanderbilt.  Being 3-0 at Vandy is impressive.  The team is much more competitive than the experts thought, but in October, the Commodores play Auburn and Duke at home and travel to Miss St and Georgia.  A split would be a huge win for this young team.
5.  Oklahoma State.  Another offensive power, but defense wins Big 12 Championship, and the Cowboys don't have one.  In October, OSU plays at Missouri and Texas and has Baylor and AM at home.  The will split these games.

Unknowns:

Colorado, Nebraska and Uconn have good teams right now - how good is the question.  Out of these three, Colorado seems the most likely to fall.  If the Buffs beat WVU and FSU over the next two weeks, they get Texas and K-State at home and Missou and Kansas on the road in October.  A split would be huge, but that is a big if right now.

Uconn plays at NC and Rutgers and gets Cinci at home in October.  This is a manageable schedule, but dropping one game is likely. 

Nebraska is not really a surprise.  The team underperformed last season, but most of the starters returned.  Pelini's discipline is exactly what the team needed to build on the success of the 2006 season.  The Cornhuskers schedule in October includes Missou, Tex Tech, Iowa State and Baylor.  Taking three out of four would be huge.  I see them winning two. 

A lot of teams have shown some promise in the first three weeks of the season.  Most teams have not played difficult games, but the teams have been impressive.  October is the money month - get through it unscathed and a serious title run is possible.  All of the surprise teams are capable of making a run, but depth, lack of defense and experience will ultimately hurt these teams chances. 

week 3 recap

Well, another year, another huge loss by the Buckeyes.  Buckeye Nation (of which I am a proud member and will always be) is scratching their heads looking for an explanation.  Coaching strategy, QB play, defensive scheme, play calling, fouls?  No explanation is really needed.  The reason why this team is good, not great, is the talent is good, not great.  Add in the critical mistakes at critical times in the game, you get big losses. 

I felt the game would come down to who wanted it the most.  The Trojans obviously answered that question pretty quickly.  USC was more prepared, executed their plays more effeciently, played with passion and pride, and took advantage of the critical mistakes made by the Buckeyes.  They understood the stakes and brilliantly executed their game plan. 

I have never played or coached football.  I played soccer and basketball, and I coach soccer.  I have been on both sides of the coin too often to count.  I do not think a coach as successful as Jim Tressel needs any advice from me, and I am positive he would laugh at my suggestions - not because they are outrageous, but he already knows what I am advocating.   I am going to offer a blueprint for improvement anyway.

(1)  Relax.  You've won a lot of games, a lot of league titles and a lot of national championships.  Your experience will help you work through the problem of playing flat in big games.
(2)  Recruiting. Continue working the South and West for OL/DL.  In the three games that OSU has been soundly defeated, the main causes were lack of protection from the O-line and lack of pressure on oppossing QB's by the DL.   I've watched countless SEC games and their OL/DL are better than the Big 10's line right now.  Going West should also help improve the OL pass blocking because passing is emphasized on the high school level more than it is in the midwest. 
(3) Get a dynamic young offensive mind to run your offense.  In those big games, the offense has not been able to keep the defense off balance throughout the game. 
(4) Improve the play of the special teams.  The last two seasons have been mediocre. 
(5) Play the young guns.  Let the freshman compete for the starting positions. 

Losing soundly in three big games will happen to any program.  The question is are wholesale changes really necessary, or do you get back to the basics and improve the fundamentals?  I think you do both.  The current starters have had plenty of time to be fundamentally sound, and they're not.  The coaching staff has had plenty of time to adjust their styles to make the team more competitive, and it is not working.  The 2008 recruiting class can be great, or they can be special.  Are you willing to make some changes to get them to that level? 

 

  

Week 3

First, let me say I hope everyone in Texas is safe tonight and tomorrow.

Week three is here.  USC v OSU is here.  Everyone take a collective sigh.  The game is likely to be a classic - Big 10/Pac 10 match ups usually are.  The plots and subplots have been dissected more than a pig in 8th grade science class.  No sense in going down that route.  Here's the only issue that will matter...

Who wants to win this game more?

At the end of the night, the team that wants to win the most will win.  The will, the attitude, the desire and the PRIDE.  The team with the most of each will win.  Talent wise, both teams are pretty much evenly matched.  USC is at home so they should be favored, and with OSU's recent lopsided losses in big games, USC is heavily favored.  I'm OK with that, but I bet the Buckeyes are itching to prove the world wrong.

Using the last two BCS title games and the weak performance against Ohio University last week as a basis for prediction in this game is foolish.  Ohio State prepared poorly for Florida, bought into their ego and got whipped by a superior team that night.  The LSU game probabaly should not have happened.  LSU was a superior team, OSU was still young (the personal foul flags showed the youth) and they played in in LSU's backyard.  Not a good combination.  Despite the talk, the OU game was just a case of looking ahead and practicing all week for USC, not the Bobcats.

Those three games do show one insight into this game though.  Ohio State's offensive line play will probably go a long way in determining the outcome in tomorrow's game.  The O-line played poorly against Florida, LSU and OU.  Most experts consider the Buckeyes O-line to be one of the best in the college football.  That may be true, but lately, they have not shown it.  Tomorrow night can change everything.

The same thing is true for USC's receivers.  Long on talent, but short on action - so far.  If they have a big night tomorrow, it could be a long night for the Buckeyes. 

Thus, no one really knows what will happen.  The coaches will have a pulse on their team's emotions tomorrow, but all of us are just guessing.  I like the Buckeyes chances.  Do they have the will? 

Division II, week 2

A few ranked teams fell last weekend.  The big game was #3 North Alabama versus then # 5 Carson Newman.  NA beat CN 13-20 behind the 401 yards passing of AJ Milwee.  As I predicted, NA's running game outdueled CN's passing game. 

#7 California lost to #20 Bloomsburg 24-17.  #11 Chadron State lost #14 Pittsburgh State, #10 Central Washington beat #23 Mesa State, # 25 Southern Connecticutt lost to Bryant and #9 Delta State lost to FCS power McNeese State. 

#1 Valdosta State and #4 Abilene Christian did not play. 

Only one game this week with ranked teams playing each other.  #2 Grand Valley playes #22 Saginaw Valley.  Look for Grand Valley to punish SV on the ground and the air.  Prediction GV 38-10. 

FCS Week 2

Not sure how, but North Dakota State is ahead of Appalachian State in the coaches poll.  Where's the love for the school going for four straight championships?  As usual, there were fireworks on the FCS level.

The #5 Montana Grizzlies won a nail biter against #14 Cal Poly 30-28 as Cal Poly Kicker, Andrew Gardner missed a f27 yard field goal with 27 seconds remianing in the game.  #3 UMass survived a scare from Holy Cross 45-42.  Previously  #21 South Dakota State piled on # 23 Youngstown State 40-7.

No major upsets occurred.

Big games of the Week

#3 Umass v. #7 James Madison in a early Colonial Athletic Conference game.
#8 McNeese State v. #14 Cal Poly The best from the Southland v the best from the Great West
#13 South Dakota St v. #15 Western Illinois. A early key game in the Missouri Valley Conference.

I look for Umass, McNeese State and South Dakota St to win close games. 

 

Overreaction

I've been accused on more than one occasion of taking college football too seriously.  I try to explain that I am not taking the game too seriously, but instead just have a deep passion for the game.  I understand the difference between losing a game and battling cancer.  The players are not "Soldiers."  A loss does not mean the coaches or players need to be fired or benched.  Like most things in life, a bit of perspective helps create understanding.

Many blogs, pundits and fans have looked at Ohio State's close game against Ohio University yesterday and determined Tressel's awful and the players terrible.  Leaving the game aside for a second, how many of the critics put in the time, effort, sweat, endurance, pain and practive to win yesterday's game? Exactly.  Zero.

As a former player and current coach, I can assure everyone that no one feels worse or is more critical of a performance than the players and coaches themselves.  They are the ones putting in the hours and training to make the season successful, not us.  As Ohio State fans, we get to enjoy the fruits of their labor.  As pundits, you get to watch these 18-23 year olds perform a game that we all love and speak critically of their performance.  As writers, you cover a sport and write critically about players that you would take exception to if written about you or your family.  I'm not saying you have to only say or write kind things because I understand your jobs depend on you being a bit critical, and I agree that often a performance does deserve a good kick on the back side.  I just think a little balance is necessary. Give the players and coaches a break for a bad performance.  I am positive you've had one.

As for yesterday's game against the Bobcats, I enjoyed it.  I have felt that the Buckeyes have not had enough challenges during the regular season for the last two years.  This team certainly has character and plenty of talent, but yesterday's game will strengthen their resolve to stay focused on each game.  As the hunted, you cannot just show up and win.  Michigan fell prey to this last season.  Take a cue from our mortal enemy - take no team lightly and play each down with passion, pride, focus and discipline.

Game Balls:

ECU - second straight victory over a ranked opponent

Georgia - big win over the MAC Champion.  This is a better win than most will give credit.

Oklahoma - convincing win over a strong Cincinnati team

Penn State - huge distractions during the week, huge victory on Saturday against Oregon State.