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Week 10

Well, South Florida began their usual slide into mediocrity last night by losing 24-10 to Cincinnati.   The program Jim Leavitt has built is nothing short of amazing, but lately the Bulls seem to lack the mental toughness to get through the middle part of the season.  Case in point, last night the Bulls had first and goal from the Bearcats two yard line, the O-line gets called for false start.  Next two plays are busted inside the tackle runs.  Next two plays are passing plays where Grothe did not even come close to hitting a receiver.  What should have been a 24-17 game stayed a 24-10 game midway through the fourth quarter. 

I have seen this lack of discipline and strong mental capacity too often this season.  Teams like Auburn, Clemson, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Georgia, Missouri, Virginia Tech and even USC have shown mental vulnerabilities this season.  What is interesting about these teams (except Clemson) is they have coaches who emphasize solid fundamental football whose teams rarely beat themselves.  USC and Georgia have been able to overcome these lapses with superior talent, but the rest have fallen on the sword. 

Switching topics.  I am completely amazed at the offensive play in the Big 12.  Eight teams are in the Top 27 in total offense in the FBS.  This is astonishing.  Even the middle tiered teams like Nebraska and Kansas State are putting up big offensive numbers - though I think the Wildcats production is a bit overstated.  The conference once known for the Wishbone and Power I has now become the "Cradle for Quarterbacks."  Whether or not these teams can put up big numbers against teams with quality defenses remains to be seen, but I like their chances.

Top Games of the Week

Georgia v. Florida.  The winner wins the SEC East and has a shot at the National Championship.  The loser is likely the Capital One Bowl representative.  Last year, Georgia throttled the Gators 42-30 in what was called Mark Richt's coming out party.  After the Bulldogs scored their first touchdown, the entire team went into the endzone to celebtate.  Think Tebow and Meyer have revenge on their mind?  I do too.  I like Florida in a shootout.  38-35.

Texas v. Texas Tech.  Huge Big 12 South match up.  Tech has managed to remain unbeaten and looked sharp last week against Kansas.  All Texas has done has beaten Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State over the last three weeks.  Win this game against the #7 Red Raiders and Texas should play for the National Championship for the second time in four seasons.  If this happens, maybe Mack Brown should pay Tommy Tuberville a royalty fee for stealing two DC's the year before they played for the championship.

Florida State v. Georgia Tech.  The Seminoles are quietly inching their way back into ACC dominance.  A win over the upstart Yellow Jackets should cement Florida State in the ACC Title game.  Georgia Tech lost a close game to Virginia last week and is looking to rebound.  I like Florida State in a hard fought running battle.  21-14. 

Oklahoma v. Nebraska.  I think this game used to mean something.  Oklahoma will likely crush the Huskers, but it will interesting to see how Pelini's team fares in this inter-division match up between old Big 8 rivals.  Nebraska keeps it interesting for the first 8 minutes of the game, and then falls like a house of cards.  Sooners win, 48-17. 

Enjoy the games.

Week 9 Review

I guess it was not good to be ranked from 10-24.  #10 Ohio State, #14 South Florida, #18 Kansas, #20 Pitt, #21 Ga Tech and #24 Northwestern all lost this past weekend.  While the Buckeyes loss to #3 Pa St is understandable, the rest looked pretty bad in their losing efforts.  Kansas was destroyed by Texas Tech, Pitt was throttled by Rutgers, Ga Tech looked quite average against Virginia and Northwestern found zero offense against the lowly Hoosiers.  I think this suggests that college football has a lot of parity right now. 

Amazingly, last season's BCS title teams, LSU and Ohio State, are searching for identities right now.  LSU has looked terrible against Florida and Georgia with a normally stout defense giving up about 5000 yards and 300 points.  Drop offs are normal after losing talent from a championship team, but this is ugly. 

The situation at Ohio State might be worse.  Expectations were high for the Buckeyes with 18 returning starters back for another title run.  First was the embarrassing loss to USC on Sept 13th, and now a home nightgame loss to Penn St where the offense failed to score a touchdown for the second time in three weeks.  Many people want to blame the poor exection on a Terrelle Pryor, but the offensive woes are mostly the fault of a lousy offensive line.  The right side of the O-line is at best, average, but very likely one of the worst in the Big 10.  Offenses become predictable when they can only use the left side of the field to execute plays.  Beanie was correct in his halftime assessment to the O-line - the offense goes as the O-line goes - into the tank.

Players of the Week

Mike Teel
Knowshon Moreno
Julio Jones

Teams of the Week

Rutgers
Georgia
Pa State Defense

Conference Rankings

Big 12
SEC
Big 10
PAC 10
ACC
Big East

Heisman Hopefuls

Colt McCoy
Knowshon Moreno
Tim Tebow
Mike Crabtree

Week Nine Preview

West Virginia showed some firepower in their big win over Auburn last night.  I have to admit, I am completely surprised by horrible season Auburn is having.  You can add Wisconsin and Tennessee to the list too.  Even though I am surprised, I realize this is how college football works sometimes.  Expectations get destroyed, and then season goes into the drain. 

Week nine of the 2008 season offers many exciting games.  Here are my Top Five:

1.  Penn State v. Ohio State.  8pm, in the Shoe.  Expect a "red out."  I really want to hate these "out" games, but I can't.  I think it is pretty cool to get 1000's of fans to dress up in just one color.  The winner of this game will likely win the Big 10.  For OSU, this is a chance to beat a Top 5 team for the first time in two seasons.  For PSU, a likely national title game is on the line.  These two teams like to slug it out and I expect nothing different tomorrow night.  The team that controls both lines of scrimmage will win the game.  Prediction:  Ohio State 31, Penn St 27.

2.  Texas V. Oklahoma State.  Colt McCoy and Co. are on a roll, but so are Zac Robinson and Co.  Look for another shootout.  First team to 38 wins this game. 

3.  Georgia v. LSU.  SEC title hopes are on the line as well as a national championship game berth.  The loser is likely out of the hunt for both.  LSU can find an identity with a big win at home in "Death Valley."  Georgia wins a close game with Stafford driving his team to victory.  Dawgs 24-21.

4.  Virginia Tech v. Florida State.  On paper, this looks like an average ACC game - strange consisering they played for National Title nine years ago, and both have been traditionally strong over the last twenty years.  Virginia Tech is young and Fla St is trying to build the momentum they have created this season.  I like Virginia Tech in this game, 24-20.

5.  USC v. Arizona.  I think USC destroys Arizona.  I know it is way too early to say this, but if USC wins this game, pencil them in for the BCS title game.  No one else on their schedule should even come close to beating them.  The Trojans still have to play the games though and I could be proven wrong, but I think the loss to Oregon State will be the only blemish on their record this season.  I think they'll be playing Florida for the title by the way.

The outcomes this week will go a long way in determining the BCS line up.  Enjoy the games. 

I have been thinking about the Big 10 and how to improve the league.  I've made no secret that I bleed Scarlet and Gray, but the league is very average right now.  Lately, the Big 10 has usually consisted of two good teams and nine average to fair teams.  Systemically, I think the league needs a face-lift.

Solutions:

1.  Find a twelfth team and split the teams into two divisions - see ACC, BIg 12, Conference USA and SEC.  Having eleven teams and only playing eight not only sounds strange, it often means some of the top teams do not play each other.  Fans are cheated when the best teams do not play each other, and teams lose because they don't get to play against the best competition as often as needed to prepare for the bowl season. The only risk of having two divisions and playing a championship game is your top team may lose that game and not make it to the BCS Title game if they are in the hunt.  I would counter that if that team is BCS Title worthy, the extra game should not matter.   The benefits benefits include playing stronger competition more regularly which should improve overall play, better games for the fans, and a longer regular season so the time off between final game and bowl game is more reasonable.  Possible contenters to be the 12th team are Cincinnati, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville and Pitt.  ND is the natural fit, but they would need to work out the NBC deal for this to happen.

2.  Start developing better defenses.  The knock on the Big 10 has been the league is build around running the ball behind a tough, cornfed offensive line.  The reality is the Big 10 has some of the most productive offenses in the country.  The problem is speed on the defensive side of the ball.  This is why Rich Rodriguez will be good for the Big 10.  His style of offense will require an adjustment on how teams defend his spread.  Purdue and Northwestern could only take it to one level.  For a true change, several of the powerhouses need to make the adjustment - OSU, Pa State (hybrid this season), Michigan.  As the defenses progress, you'll see a stronger conference. 

3.  When Paterno steps down drom Pa State after this season (I believe he will), the slot should be filled by a young, dynamic, promising coach.  Possible successors include Todd Graham, Mike Leach (not so young), Will Muschamp, Steve Sarkisian or Jim Harbaugh.  A school like Pa St should never lose to Michigan nine straight times.  The Big 10 needs Pa St, Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin to be great every season with Michigan State, Minnesota and Iowa having consistently good teams year after year.  Sprinkle in Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois and Indiana as decent supporting teams and you have a strong conference.

I don't think the Big 10 is a bad conference.  The overall level of play is consistent with the other BCS conferences, but it is lacking in some critical areas.  I think the Big 12 and SEC have made the right adjustments, and the Big 10 should copy it.  The Woody/Bo era went into the Moeller/Carr/Paterno/Cooper era which has become the Tressel and ?  The tradition and pride of the Big 10 is wonderful, let's bring it into the 21st Century. 

Week 8 Thoughts

First and foremost, Texas is the #1 team in college football and deserves the ranking.  Whether or not the Longhorns keep the ranking will depend on their ability to stay focused and improve each week.  However, anyone watching Colt McCoy carve Missouri's defense with precision on Saturday night clearly understands the level he is playing on right now.  That was a Heisman highlight reel.  

Similar to most people, I would like to know who is the real Maryland team?  The one dismantled by Middle Tennessee State and Virginia, or the one that throttled Cal and Wake.  This is probably giving The Fridge nightmares.  Consistency away from Byrd Stadium is the key to the Terrapins season.  Other teams in this category include Arizona, Iowa and Virginia Tech.

Perhaps a little dissension in the Buckeye locker room is exactly the medicine to cure their lethargic play year to date.  Players openly questioning the coaches and play of teammates is never good, but maybe it brought the team together.  On the other hand, maybe Michigan State is not as good as advertised.  I think a little of both, but obviously the defense line is starting to improve and the offense may have found more rhythm.  A healthy Beanie and improving Pryor help. 

The SEC is not the best conference this season.  The Big 12 holds this title.  Whether or not a Big 12 team wins the national title is up for discussion, but top to bottom, the Big 12 is the deepest this season.  The SEC is not far off, but the league's two best non-conference wins, GA over ASU and Bama over Clemson, look much weaker now.  Coupled with Ol Miss' loss to Wake, Tennessee's loss to UCLA, Ga Tech's thumping of Miss St and Ark loss at Texas, the SEC appears to be a little less strong than the Big 12 this season.  Don't be surprised if TN beats Bama and LSU beats GA this week to throw the whole SEC into a crazy mess. 

Is the Big 10 better this year, or is this just bad perception.  I think most would argue the Big 10 is better, but I am trying to determine if this is actually true.  For example, the Big 10 went 1-3 against the PAC 10.  Ohio State lost to USC, Purdue to Oregon and Michigan State to Cal.  Penn State beat Oregon State.  Purdue probably should have beaten Oregon, but that does not matter.  Add in Illinois' loss to Missou and Iowa's loss to Pitt, I have to question the strength of the Big 10 this year.  Has there been a signature out of conference win?  I think Minnesota and Northwestern are better, but Wisky and Mich are much worse.  Iowa is improved, Illinois is up and down and Michigan State is currently an unknown.  No offense to Indiana, but they suck.  My position is the Big 10 is slightly improved, but has a long way to go to be on par with the SEC and Big 12.

Week 8 Player's of the Week:

Colt McCoy

Beanie Wells

David Johnson

Kellen Moore

Keola Antolin

Week 8 Teams of the Week

Ohio State

Maryland

TCU

Texas

Arizona

Conference Rankings

Big 12

SEC

PAC 10

Big 10

ACC

Big East

Heisman Hopefuls

Colt McCoy

Tim Tebow

Mark Sanchez

Dustin Clark

Week 8 Preview

The weekend has not yet arrived and we have a mild upset.  #9 BYU was crushed 32-7 by TCU in Ft. Worth last night.  This loss will end BYU's dream of making a BCS bowl.  No offense to Utah, but Boise State is now the favorite to make it to a BCS bowl game.  If Utah and Boise run the table, Boise will likely get the nod. I think the better case would be seeing them play each other.  That would be a huge win for college football. 

You can count on more upsets this weekend.  Here are my top three games for potential upsets:

1.  Colorado State over Utah.  The Rams are just an average team, but have the potential to stay in the game.  The MWC just seems to have these mid season match ups where the heavy favorite lays an egg.  BYU was last night, Utah tomorrow afternoon.
2.  Texas A&M over Texas Tech.  There is no question that A&M has been disappointing, but Texas Tech is going to get caught looking ahead to their next four games.  The Aggies win a shhotout at home.
3.  Virginia over North Carolina.  The Tar Heels are a good, but young team.  Virginia is not good, but playing better.  Since the ACC is wide open, I'm calling for the Cavaliers to beat NC by 3.

Texas, LSU and Penn State are all on upset alert too.  I would include Ohio State, but I think Michigan State winning at home is not much of an upset.  Big win, yes. Upset, not really. 

Week Seven Thoughts

This is why they play the games.  Texas beats Oklahoma, Oklahoma State beats Missouri, Florida destroys LSU, Arkansas beats Auburn, Vandy losses to Mississippi State, Pa St throttles Wisconsin, Minnesota beats Illinois, Toledo upsets Michigan and Stanford beats Arizona. 

Most pundits and fans had Oklahoma, Missouri, Auburn, Vandy, Michigan, Arizona and Illinois.  They split on Pa St, Wisky, LSU and Florida.  Week Seven was the norm, not an anomaly.  Be prepared for more upsets in October.  This is why preseason polls matter very little.

I learned a lot from these games, but most importantly is to never underestimate your opponent.  With the exception of Wisconsin, I think every loser this past weekend thought they would beat their opponent with relative ease.  The coaches and players will never admit to it, but watching the losing teams I saw a consistent failure to make the right adjustments.  I attribute this to a lack of preparation.  I'm still amazed when teams fall flat in big games.  With the skill level, these should be great games...most are not.

Week Seven Game Balls:

Zac Robinson
Colt McCoy
Daryl Clark
Tim Tebow

Conference ranking update:

1.  Big 12
2.  SEC
3.  Big 10
4.  ACC
5.  PAC 10
6. Big East

Mid-season Surprises:
Good
Minnesota, Vandy, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Alabama, Michigan State
Bad
Auburn, Clemson, Wisconsin, Michigan, Miami, Arizona State

Top Five
Texas, Pa St and Alabama - 1,2,3 no particular order yet.
Florida and USC 4 and 5.

Mid-Season Heisman List
McCoy, Tebow, Ringer. 

Coaches

Every year there seems to be a set of coaches on the hot seat.  Right now, Tennessee's Phil Fulmer, Clemson's Tommy Bowden, Iowa's Kirk Ferentz, Syracuse's Greg Robinson and Washington's Ty Willingham are definitely under fire from fans, media and alumni about the direction of the programs.  As a former player and current coach, as well as a fan, I understand this issue quite well.  My conclusion is the fans overreact and most media need to stop fueling the fire.

What are the common themes in asking for a coach to resign or be fired?  First, the team is not winning every game.  I think the biggest problem with the BCS is not that the system too often pairs the wrong teams in the championship game, but instead has fueled an idea that every season needs to 12-0 or bust.  A 10-2 season is not awful.  A comparable record in the NFL is winning 13 games, MLB 129 games, NBA 65 games.  Winning 80% of the time is well above expectations in most sports, except college football and golf for Tiger Woods. 

Second, not winning enough league titles.  This is a fair argument.  You don't have to win every game to win the conference.  Let's look at Tennessee.  Last four seasons, Tennessee has won the SEC East twice. Georgia once.  Florida once.  The difference is Tennessee lost the SEC Championship game both times.  Has Tennessee regressed lately?  I don't know.  The won the BCS Title in 1998, but Tennessee has only won four titles since 1900.  Additionally, Coach Fulmer has won a lot games.  I understand that there's just a feeling that the program is not performing well, but I think Fulmer has earned the right to lead this team for the foreseeable future. 

Third, off the field problems.  This is the most legitimate reason for criticizing a coach.  The coach is responsible for leading the team on the field and off the field. When a high number of players are getting in trouble, the coach bears the responsibility.  Is this reason enough to fire a coach though?  Unless the problems are so egregious (e.g., Colorado under Barnett), I would say no.  A certain percentage of players will get into trouble regardless of the rules of the program.  If the coach handles each problem swiftly and with just discipline, that should be enough to let the issue rest.  Ironically, Jo Pa is getting rid of the underachieving label with his second great team in four years, but is fighting "disciplinary" issues as the primary reason he's too old to coach. 

Lastly, not adjusting to today's modern game.  The spread, the pro-set, the west coast, the option, speed, power.  Coaches have philosophies and they tend to stick to them whether the team is winning or losing.  The exception might be Tommy Tuberville who has yet to find a coordinator he likes.  To me, the style of play is meaningless.  Football is still blocking, tackling, special teams and turnovers. The team that controls the lines of scrimmage, wins the field position battle and gets more turnovers wins the game a majority of the time.  

The issues you do not want to see are teams quitting on their coaches, lack of progression in skill, lack of passion and competitiveness, high turnover in coaching staffs, poor performance in the classroom and an abnormal amount of off the field issues.  If these problems are occurring, there should be cause for taking the team in a different direction.  

Expecting perfection from a team is nonsense.  Coaches earn a lot of money and deserve some of the blame when things get ugly, but the outright call for someone's job is ridiculous.  No one works harder than the head coach, his staff and the players to be successful. Fans and alumni need to be more supportive of the coaches, and the 18-22 year olds that they coach. 

Week 6 thoughts

The regular season is half over for most teams.  It seems like the season started yesterday.  The first BCS poll will be out soon.  Let the arguing begin.  We need a playoff, a one loss SEC team should get into the title game before a no loss Big 12 team, the Big 10 sucks, USC's overrated, ....  Relax.  This is when the season begins to take form.  Let's look at the picture in late November, not early October.

What did we learn this past weekend?

1.  Ohio State is good, but lacks the killer instinct to put a team away or to take a commanding early lead.  The Buckeyes have marched down the field in convincing fashion in just about every game this season only to flop on the next few possessions.  Either the teams lacks focus, lacks a sense of urgency or is so predictable it takes an oppossing DC one series to adjust to the Buckeyes O.  We also learned the Buckeyes pass rush is completely awful and the O lacks a deep ball threat.  The saving grace is Beanie and Pryor.
2.  Auburn's offense is offensive.  The modified spread has killed this team and killed their potential for an SEC West/SEC Title. 
3.  Boise is still the class of the WAC.  Fresno continues to lose games they should win.  A total collapse is not out of the question.
4.  Notre Dame is not back.  They should be 4-1 at this point in the season.  Michigan, Purdue, SDSU and Stanford are not good teams.  Michigan State is a good team and they steamrolled the Irish.  I expect North Carolina to do the same.
5.  The SEC is not as strong as the fans, coaches and pundits claim.  Is it good, absolutely.  Besides Bama and LSU, I have seen some pretty mediocre play in the SEC this year.  My belief is the Big 12 is the strongest conference this season.  This is not surprising considering the conference was down from 2003-2006, started to climb back last season.  The pendulum has swung.  The Big 10 is slighly behind the Big 12 and SEC, but well ahead of the Big East, the ACC and Pac 10. 
6.  Nebraska's D is still bad.  Last year the Huskers D was pathetic.  This year it has improved to bad. 
7.  The Big East is in an identity crisis.  The conference is full of average teams, but lacks a great team.  I thought UConn or S. Fla would carry the torch, but after last weekend, the evidence is very clear that the Big East is in total rebuilding mode.
8.  Will the real USC please stand?  When this team zeros in on an opponent, it is lights out.  The trouble is the team lays an egg or two.  Oregon State?  Please.  Stanford thumped OSU to start the season, Pa State destroyed the Beavers the next week, and Utah took them out last week.  This loss should stain their season. 
9.  The Heisman will go to Chase Daniel if the Tigers finished the regular season undefeated - perhaps even if they lose the Big 12 title game.  The Heisman is made for this type of player.  Good luck.
10.  The year of the intelligent schools will start to slide this weekend.  Northwestern will lose to Michigan State and I think Vandy will be upset by Miss St. 

That's the list.

Games of the Week

The weekend has not even started and we already have an upset.  Unranked Pittsburgh defeated #10 South Florida 26-21 at South Florida.  I'm not ready to anoint the Panthers the Big East favorite just yet because I have yet to see Wannstedt deliver with his talent.  However, after dropping their opening game to Bowling Green, Pitt does look like they'll be in contention.

Will any other ranked teams be upset this weekend?  Probably.  That's just the way it is in college football.  I love it.

The following games will have a major impact on the rest of the 2008 season:

1.  Wisconsin v. Ohio State.  I said at the beginning of the year that Wisconsin was a darkhorse for the BCS title game.  I also said the Buckeyes may have trouble at Madison.  My first prediction is obviously not going to happen, and I would prefer to go 0-2.  Wisconsin laid a big fat 2nd Half egg against Michigan last week - can they rebound?  OSU has looked very average most of this season until last week when Beanie lined up in the backfield with Pryor.  Will this combo continue to gain momentum?  Probably.  The team that wins in the trenches and wins the TO battle will win.  I like OSU is a close 20-16 battle.
2.  USC v. Oregon.  The PAC 10 needs this to be a classic.  USC is undoubtably a premier team, but they lack focus in easy games.  Oregon is still recovering from the huge home loss to Boise State.  If USC wins big, they can inch their way back into contention.  Another loss spells doom for the Trojans - and probably Ohio State too. USC 35-21.
3.  Missouri v. Nebraska.  On paper, this game should be a 21 point victory for the Tigers.  Nebraska is rebuilding and Pelini will need at least another year to get the ship turned.  Missouri is averaging close to 200 points and 10,000 yards per game - an exaggeration, but Chase Daniel and Co. have been sharp and impressive.  This game will be closer than most anticipate, but Missouri will pull away late.  Tigers 45, Huskers 31. 
4.  Miami v. Florida State.  This is obviously not the same rivalry of the 80's90's and early 00's, but it will have an impact on the ACC race and should help springboard the winning team back into respectability.  The loser will become an afterthought - again.  WOW.  Miami 31-24.
5.  Cal v. Arizona State.  Similar to USC/Org, the PAC 10 needs this to be a great game.  The loser will fall into mediocrity, the winner stays in the PAC 10 title hunt.  Cal wins big 45-21. 

Enjoy the games.