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Playoffs

I've argued against a playoff system for Div 1 football for quite some time.  Some of the reasons include cost to the fans to travel and watch the games, corporate hacks hogging the seats, a +1 system being more favorable, and the importance of the regular season might be destroyed.  After some careful analysis, I am now reversing course.  While the above would almost certainly occur, the upside to an 8 team playoff outweighs the consequences.  I realize this is a unrealistic dream, but I am presenting the case anyway.

I have three simple reasons for changing my position.  The first reason is the regular season is getting worse each year, especially the non-conference games.  I might be in the minority here, but the last three regular seasons have not been spectacular.  Very few big games are played.  A major reason why the regular season has been mediocre is the traditionally good teams are less willing to schedule big games against other good teams for fear of losing an early game.  There are exceptions every year, but the amount of marquee games in the non-conference schedule is generally low.  The top teams may schedule tougher games if the risk of losing is not as severe.

I'm not delusional though.  I realize another primary reason for scheduling easier games is to get more home games and thus more revenue.  To off set this tendency, I would penalize a FBS program for playing a FCS school.  One possible penalty is not allowing a FBS team to be ranked #1,2 or 3 if they have played a FCS team.  You can still be ranked 4-8, but you cannot be a top seed.  I'll refer to this penalty later when I discuss the playoff format.  

The second reason for changing my position is some of the middle tier programs are getting much better, and they deserve an opportunity to be in the mix for a championship.  The Boise's and Utah's probably would not go undefeated in the top 6 BCS conferences, but most the of the teams in these conferences are not going undefeated either.  Utah and Boise generally try to play tough OOC schedules, and they often win so it is reasonable to give them the opportunity to win the title.  While the middle tiered teams may not play the tough games week to week in conference play that some of the other top teams play, they'll have to beat at least three strong teams to win the title and I can live with that. 

The last reason for changing my position is the top bowl games are now meaningless.  The only game that matters is the championship.  The participants rarely take the bowl game seriously, and the play is generally sloppy.  Most teams like the pre-game festivities more than the actual game.  Having seven meaningful games at the end of the year to determine the champion would be great for the fans, the TV networks, sponsors, the schools and the NCAA. 

Structuring the playoff system is not easy, but it can be accomplished if some compromises are made. I would keep the current BCS rankings system in place.  The top 8 make the playoff field.  If you are not in the top 8, then you've probably done something during the regular season that disqualifies you from consideration, e.g., two losses.  There are no automatic bids.  Seeds are the based on the BCS rankings.  General seeding rules apply, e.g, 1v8, 2v7. 

Incorporating the current BCS bowls is simple.  The Rose, Orange, Fiesta and Sugar will host the Semi-final and championship games with proper rotation.  Realizing that only 3 games are needed for the semi's and title game, one of the big four will host the 4 v 5 seeds quarterfinal game.  This should not be a problem considering the current format of the BCS bowls.  The top three seeds get their quarterfinal game at home.  This is where the consequence for playing a FCS team can hurt a team. 

The playoffs would begin the last week of December and be played in consecutive weeks.  At most, a team would play 16 games during the season.  Considering the other NCAA levels and all the other sports play a lot more than this, 16 games for a maximum of two teams is not unreasonable.  

Is this system perfect.  No.  Some teams will be left out of the mix that may deserve a shot.  Additionally, the upper tier bowls such as the Cotton, Capital One and Gator will lose some flare.  These are small sacrifices for improving the game and for crowning the most deserving champion.  Money will still be made and the sanctity of the bowl system remains in place under my suggestions.  Since the bowls are about money, why not grab the opportunity to make more? 

One loss debate

After Penn State lost to Iowa last Saturday, I started thinking about the strength of the conferences.  Specifically, I was trying to determine which one loss team deserved to play for the BCS Title should Bama or Texas Tech lose.  The players are Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, USC and Penn St.  On the surface, I think most would argue that Texas and Florida have the stronger resumes for being considered.  The validity is from watching Texas and Florida win most of their games in convincing fashion, and doing it in the Big 12 and SEC. 

Unfortunately, Oklahoma lost to Texas, USC to Oregon State and Penn St to Iowa.  None of their losses was so terrible to leave them out of the discussion, but it is hard to overlook USC's loss to a team that Penn St throttled, and Penn State's loss to a team with four losses. By default, the Longhorns should get the nod over the Sooners because they won the head to head.  

Should Texas win the rest of their games, their one loss would be to Texas Tech in Lubbock on a last second touchdown.  Granted, Texas looked awful throughout much of the game, but the Longhorns did what they had to do to get the lead late in the fourth quarter to make it a great game.  Florida's loss was more problematic because they lost at home against an unranked Ol Miss team.  Despite playing as poorly as they possibly could, the Gators still kept it close.

I would be inclined to give USC the nod over Florida if the PAC 10 had more ranked teams, but the conference is not too strong top to bottom.  I would also consider Penn State over Florida if the Big 10 were deeper this season.  Unfortunately, Penn State is going to bear the consequences from Ohio State's flops in the 06 and 07 title games against SEC opponents.  This is not fair, but it is going to happen.

Thus, Florida and Texas should be the favorites in the one loss world of the BCS.

Switching directions for the last part of this post.  Since the Big 10 is having an identity crisis, I thought I should draw a map out of the woods by comparing the Big 10 to the Big 12.   I see a lot of similarities between the Big 12 in 2003 and 2004 and the Big 10 in 2006 and 2007.  In 2000, Oklahoma overachieved and defeated Florida State 13-2 to win the BCS Championship.  This win created an allusion of greatness under Stoops that was probably unfairly rewarded in 03/04 when the Big 12 was not a strong conference.  Similarly, Ohio State overachieved in 2002 and won the title by beating Miami 31-24 in 2 OT's.  The Big 10 was much stronger in the early 2000's than 06/07 when the Buckeyes marched through the conference.  While the 06 title appearance was earned, the O7 appearance was a gift.  Fortunately, OSU is being critically judged this season based on the flops in 06/07, and hopefully that will pay dividends in the future.

Having a deeper conference with more dynamic teams should help this transition.  Dantonio was one piece, Rodriguez another, and hopefully the new Pa St coach will be a younger/dynamic coach (presuming Jo Pa steps down this year).  Tim Brewster seems to have Minnesota moving in the right direction and Ferentz has Iowa on the upward path again.  If Northwestern can maintain a good program and Wisconsin can rise to the top third again, the Big 10 will get some mojo back.  I see the Big 10 turning the corner, but work is yet to be done.  

The final piece of the transformation is getting young and creative offensive minds into the Big 10.  Looking at the Big 12 South, Missouri, USC, Oregon and Florida, one cannot help to imagine a modern offense being implemented into a top Big 10 team.  Ohio State probably has the greatest potential to make this change if Tressel decides to do it.  Besides USC, Texas and some SEC programs, no other school in the country can recruit like Ohio State.  If Leach can do it at Texas Tech, Tressel can do it at OSU.

The SEC and the Big 12 have already made the transformation into modern college football conferences.  For the Big 10 to get to this level, the transformation has to occur.  I am confident this will happen by 2010. 

Week 11 Recap

Madness.  This is the best word to describe the college football scene right now.  #3 Penn State made everyone in the SEC and Big 12 country happy on Saturday by losing to unranked Iowa 24-23 in Iowa City.  Granted, the game was on the road in traditional Upper Midwest conditions for November, but the Nittany Lions had no business losing to the four loss Hawkeyes.  All this means is the Big 10 will not be sending a team to the National Championship this season. 

The SEC is set with Florida winning the East and Alabama winning the West.  Should the Gators and the Tide remain undefeated, the SEC Championship game will likely decide one of the BCS title game teams. Though Bama beat LSU on the road on Saturday to remain undefeated, I think Florida is better team because of their offensive power.  Like most things though, you have to play the game to find out who is the best team. 

The Big 12 South could become a huge nightmare if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech in Norman next weekend.  A three way tie in the South between the Sooners, Red Raiders and Texas Longhorns is possible and the deciding factor would be BCS ranking.  If Oklahoma wins out, they would likely be ranked higher in the BCS.  This would be a shame for the Longhorns.  All three teams have other games remaining so this discussion is definitely premature, but the nighmare scenario is highly possible. 

Does any team want to win the ACC or the Big East?  No team is dominant in either conference and it would not surprise me if their conference champion has three conference losses.  In the end, I think North Carolina and Pitt will win their championships, but both teams are not strong.

Anyone thinking Oregon State is going to win the PAC 10 is crazy. The Beavers have to play Cal, Oregon and Arizona to finish the regular season.  Oregon State's only signature win this season is against USC.  A huge win, yes, but they've also lost to Utah, Pa St and Stanford.  I think they go 1-2 in this stretch of games.  USC will play in their fourth straight Rose Bowl.

Players of the Week:

Graham Harrell
Tim Tebow
John Parker Wilson

Teams of the Week:

Iowa
Cincinnati
Alabama

Heisman Hopefuls:

Graham Harrell
Tim Tebow
Colt McCoy
Sam Bradford
Mike Crabtree

Conference Rankings

Big 12
SEC
Pac 10
Big 10
ACC
Big East

Week 11 Preview

Does anyone want to take charge in the ACC?  Every week a new team is favored to win.  I would argue that the ACC is the most balanced BCS conference right now.  The only problem is it is balanced with mediocre teams.  In the Atlantic Division, Florida State, Maryland and Wake are all 3-2.  Wake beat Fla St, Maryland beat Wake and Fla St and Maryland play on the 22nd.  I willing to bet right now that the Seminoles beat the Terps. 

The Coastal Division is not any better.  Ga Tech is sitting at 4-2 and plays North Carolina (2-2) this week.  Miami, Virginia Tech and Virginia are all 3-2.  The U is on a bye week, Tech throttled Maryland last night and the Cavs play Wake tomorrow.  Inconsistency has been the ACC's problem this season, and Iam confident this will continue for the rest of the year.  Ga Tech and North Carolina appear to be the best teams in the ACC, and the winner tomorrow will likely win the Coastal Division.  Who they play in the ACC Championship is a mystery.

There are very intriguing games tomorrow outside of the LSU/Bama and Tex Tech/Ok St games.  The Stanford v. Oregon game is one that is appealing.  Both are 4-2 in the PAC 10.  Stanford is trying to become bowl eligible since 2001.  Harbaugh is doing a good job at Stanford and should be a likely candidate for a more lucrative position in the off season. 

Rutgers v. Syracuse.  I know on the surface this game looks terrible (and it probably is), but Rutgers is 3-5 with a chance to run the table and finish 7-5.  The Scarlet Knights finish with Cuse, USF, Army and Louisville.  Schiano has his team playing much better football, and it would be nice to see Rutgers play in a fourth straight bowl game. 

Ohio State v. Northwestern.  The Buckeyes travel to Evanston to take on a resurgent Wildcats team.  OSU destroyed Northwestern last year - the game was over in the first five minutes.  Northwestern is thinking revenge, and their spread offense should keep the Buckeyes off balance in the first half.  This game will be close for three quarters.  Buckeyes win 31-20. 

Big Games of the Week

LSU v. Alabama.  Everyone knows the storyline.  Saban vs. his old team.  This time the Tide are visiting Baton Rouge.  Saban has Bama back in the #1 position since 1993. LSU is struggling to find some balance to their season.  Bama has played well in their big games this season, and I see that trend continuing.  Bama wins a close game 21-17.

Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech.  So Mike Leach has his Red Raider team in position for a Big 12 South Title and possible and BCS Championship berth.  How will the team respond to the pressure of being #2?  Should be fine.  While the Cowboys are a much improved team, I see Tex Tech rolling in this game, 37-24. 

Enjoy the games.

Week 10 Recap

So Ty Willingham and Phil Fulmer won't be returning to coach Washington and Tennessee next season.  While I get that college football is a business and winning is important, why is so important to announce a firing during the regular season?  Regardless of whether a change is necessary or warranted, I think this shows a complete lack of class on the part of a school's administration to discuss a coaching change mid season. 

Do Fulmer and Willingham need to be replaced?  Willingham's program has not shown much progress in three and half seasons so I would say the change is justified, but Fulmer's job should have been more secure.  I agree that Tennessee has fallen a bit recently, but the Vols have won the SEC East twice in the last four seasons.  Fulmer's winning percentage is among the best of active coaches and he has a national championship on his resume.  My position is he deserved a chance to take Tennessee back to the elite level.  At 58, it might be tough for Fulmer to find another head coaching position.  Maybe he can go to Duke and he Cutcliffe win the ACC.

This past weekend lacked flair, except for the Texas/Texas Tech game.  This game represented the very essence of what makes college football fantastic.  Two top teams battling for momentum with both QB's leading their team in the crucial final minutes of play.  Unfortunately for Texas and Colt McCoy, Texas Tech got the ball last and delivered.  I realize this loss for Texas may end their hopes for the BCS Championship, but it should not.  Texas played at Texas Tech, played their fourth Top 10 opponent in a row, and showed tremendous resiliency by overcoming the early 19 point deficit. I am not a fan of Texas, but I do realize when a team deserves some recognition in spite of a loss. 

Penn State fans felt snubbed after Texas Tech jumped thm in the BCS standings this week.  I can only tell them to relax because the season is just beginning to heat up.  November will be cruel to many teams, and the key is to keep winning.  I cannot predict whether or not Texas Tech or Alabama will lose, but history suggests one or both will lose.  I think a Florida/Penn St BCS Championship is likely at this point. 

Players of the Week

Michael Crabtree
Tim Tebow
Sam Bradford

Teams of the Week

Texas Tech
Florida
West Virginia

Conference Rankings

Big 12
SEC
Big 10
PAC 10
ACC
Big East

Heisman Hopefuls

Colt McCoy
Michael Crabtree
Graham Harrell
Tim Tebow