Since 2006, the winner of the SEC has also won the BCS Championship. While it may be foolish to predict anything different this season, there are clear signs that this will be the year that SEC does not get a team into the title game.
Sign #1: The SEC favorites, Alabama and Florida, will both have a difficult time replacing the personnel losses to the NFL. Elite programs can usually replace anyone, but Tebow, Haden, Cody and McClain were much more than just star players. They were special leaders who frequently willed their teams to victory. These losses will cost both programs at least one game this year.
Sign #2: No other team in the SEC seems capable of making a run this season. Georgia and Auburn will be in the mix, but both appear to be a year away from seriously contending for the SEC title. Georgia's defense is not championship worthy, and the Bulldogs will be starting a first year QB again – never good in the SEC. Auburn arguably returns their best team since 2005, but the West is vicious. Winning the division with just one loss would be a miracle. The Tigers will be better, but their lack of depth in critical positions will cause them pain later in the season.
Sign #3: No overwhelmingly dominant defense. Defense is king in college football, and the play of the defensive line in particular in the SEC has been incredible the last four years. The talent is still there, but it is young and spread out among several teams.
Sign #4: Schedules. Defending a national championship is difficult enough with every opponent gunning for you, but the Tide also has the task of playing six teams that have a bye week before playing them. Coupled with road games at LSU, Arkansas and Tennessee, the path is extraordinarily tough for Alabama.
LSU plays at Auburn, Arkansas and Florida, and they play North Carolina and West Virginia in non-conference play. There is at least one loss in these games, likely two or three.
Florida's path is easier, but far from simple. The Gators draw Bama and LSU from the West, and travel to Florida State at the end of the season.
Auburn's schedule is most favorable among the SEC contenders. They play LSU, GA, SC and Ark at home, and the toughest road game is Bama. The schedule sets up to make the Tigers a legitimate team to win the SEC, but they'll likely have a loss or two.
Bonus Sign: Ohio State, TCU, Boise, Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska are all good enough to finish the season unbeaten. If two of these teams finish the season undefeated, and the SEC champ has a loss, maybe two, they'll be shut out of the title game.
The SEC’s streak of winning the BCS Championship is pretty remarkable considering the amount of elite level teams in college football. The run will likely end this year, but don’t expect it to last long. Alabama, Auburn and Florida are just reloading for 2011.
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