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Five players to watch in the Big Ten this week

The Big Ten is set to have a phenomenal year with Iowa, Ohio State and Wisconsin leading the way.  Defensively, this is probably the best year for the Big Ten since 2005.  Players like Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward, Ollie Ogbu and Greg Jones are capturing the pre-season headlines, but a few other lesser known players will be making a charge in their opening games.  These are the five players to watch this week.

Top five defensive players to watch this weekend in Big Ten country

John Simon, DT, Ohio State.  Simon turned some heads as a freshman last year playing well in the second half of the season.  He now has the opportunity to shine as a fulltime starter.  Playing alongside seasoned veterans, Heyward and Dexter Larimore, Simon should have a breakout season beginning against Marshall on Thursday night.  He may not get the accolades from the media, but Simon will be a big reason why Heyward has a monstrous season in 2010. 

Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin.  Borland was the Big Ten’s Freshman of the Year in 2009, and he was named to the FWAA Freshman All-American team.  Can he progress in 2010?  Playing behind a less experienced defensive line may cause an early stumble, but as the season progresses, Borland should be wrecking havoc on opposing offenses again.  UNLV should not pose a serious threat Wisconsin on Saturday, but they have just enough offensive firepower to test Borland and the rest of the Badger defense. 

Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois.  Not much went well for the Fighting Illini in 2009, especially on defense.  Wilson was a terror during his freshman and sophomore seasons, but he suffered a season ending neck injury against Missouri in the opener last year and was lost for the season.  Expectations are high for Wilson to return to his old form, and help lead Illinois back into a bowl game.  Wilson played well against Missouri in 07 and 08, and his play will dictate whether the Illini snap its three game losing streak against the Tigers. 

 

Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue.  Kerrigan does not get the publicity that Clayborn or Heyward might get, but he is one the Big Ten’s elite defensive linemen.  Kerrigan led the conference in sacks in 2009 finishing with 13.  He is also on every watch list for the season ending defensive awards.  Kerrigan should pick up where he left off against Notre Dame this Saturday as the Fighting Irish are breaking in three new offensive linemen.  If he has a big game, the Boilermakers might get a rare win in South Bend.

Quentin Davie, LB, Northwestern.  Davie led the Wildcats in tackles and sacks in 2009, perhaps having his best game against Auburn in the Outback Bowl recording nine tackles.  He has been named to the pre-season Butkus Award watch list.  Davie’s play will have a direct impact on whether or not Northwestern makes it to a third straight bowl game.  They open at Vanderbilt, not a heavy weight, but an SEC team nonetheless.  Look for Davie to have a productive day against a very inexperienced Commodore’s offensive line. 

The condition of Big Ten football

Just like Earl in the Caribbean, a storm is gaining strength in Big Ten country.  The storm has been churning for a while, but the eye is about to hit shore.  Battling in the ring are two powerful entities, the Traditionalists – call this side the Becks and the Modernists – call this side the Delaneys.  At stake is owning the identity of the conference for the next 25 years.

The Traditionalist values loyalty, order, culture and unity.  They want to protect the purity of college football, and reject the need for change to make the sport better. A Traditionalist fights against progression, and fears the Modernists will destroy college football.

The Modernist values innovation, change and market expansion. They believe a new system is necessary to protect the sport.  Modernists reject history, and fear more of the same will only lead to the demise of the conference.

There are three primary theatres where the battles are taking place.

The first is on conference expansion.  Round one was in the early 90’s before Penn State joined.  Round two is over with Nebraska joining the conference.  Round three centers on adding teams – two or four.  Could this be the Big Ten’s ‘Thrilla in Manila?’

The Modernists rightfully won the first two rounds.  The Big Ten was stagnant in the late 1980’s, and needed a face-lift.  Penn State was a perfect addition to the conference, and except for a few down seasons, has been a major player in determining the conference champion.  Fast forward 17 years, and the same was true.  The Big Ten had lost ground to the Big 12, the SEC and the ACC by not having a conference championship game.  Getting a twelfth team was imperative, and like Penn State, Nebraska will strengthen the conference and compete for championships.

The Traditionalists need to win round three.  Fourteen teams is too many, sixteen is absurd.  At the heart of expanding again is Notre Dame.  The Big Ten’s multiple attempts at courting Notre Dame have repeatedly failed.  It is time to move on without the Fighting Irish.

Even if Notre Dame is not the prize, adding two more teams should be avoided.  With 14 teams, at best, each school would play nine conference opponents presuming they all play three non-conference games.  The chances are likely that a few of the top teams will not play each other.  Seasons like 2002, when Iowa and Ohio State did not play each other, will be more common.  Additionally, having more teams just adds the need for more tie-breakers – see Big 12 2008 on the absurdity of tie-breakers.  Anytime the outcome is settled subjectively instead of on the field, it is bad for business.

If the Big Ten considers adding four more teams – see above, only more perverse.

The second battle is changing the date of The Game.  Ohio State vs. Michigan is one of the best rivalries in sports, not just college football.  For 75 years, The Game has been played in the last week of the season.  The outcome frequently determines the conference championship, and often impacts the national championship. Moving the date back to mid-season would be a major change that according to recent polls, would severely alter the mental condition of the residents of Michigan and Ohio State.

The reason behind moving The Game is the Big Ten is trying to accomplish two other goals.  They are trying to set up the division alignments properly – to the Modernists, this means putting OSU and Michigan in different divisions, and the conference is subsequently hoping to get a potential second Ohio State/Michigan game in the Big Ten Championship. Traditionalists feel this would ruin college football's most precious rivalry. Modernists say two is better than one.

Both sides have pretty good evidence to support their argument.  Traditionalists point to the ACC as Exhibit A.  When Miami joined the ACC in 2004, experts predicted that the Hurricanes would dominate the conference along with Florida State.  The Canes and Seminoles would clash in the championship game every season with the winner vying for BCS titles.  Fans are still waiting for this to happen.

They also point to the SEC West where Alabama and Auburn play at the end of the year.  The Iron Bowl is one of college football’s most intense rivalries, and like The Game, often impacts the outcome of the SEC and the national championship.  Moving the Iron Bowl would be sacrilegious in Alabama, and the Traditionalists want the Big Ten to keep that view in mind when considering a potential change.

Alternatively, the Modernists point to the Big 12 South where Oklahoma and Texas play the Red River Shootout earlier in the season.  The rivalry is powerful and the outcome generally impacts the winner of the South Division, but they feel some of its flare is lost because the Big 12's two best teams cannot play each other again for the title – which many people wish for every year.  Modernists ask us to imagine how much more intense the rivalry would be if OSU and Michigan could play twice a year.

At this point, the Modernists appear to have the upper hand in the debate. In terms of priorities, the Big Ten seems to want Michigan and Ohio State in separate divisions more than it wants the schools to play at the end of the regular season.  The winner will be announced mid-September - if you're a Traditionalist, you lose.  Sorry to ruin the ending of the story.

The last issue is agreeing to a playoff system.  This is where the battle takes a strange twist.  The Chief Modernists become the Benedict Arnold’s of their time.  Jim Delaney and his Woody Allen sidekick Gordon Gee are the key leaders opposing a playoff.  To the chagrin of the Modernists, the enormous power that Delaney and Gee wield over expansion and conference alignment also filters into the advocacy of maintaining the current BCS system.

Modernists are scratching their heads wondering how in the world Delaney’s primary goal of making any change necessary to expand of the power of the Big Ten no longer applies when it comes to creating a FBS playoff system. Don't expect any changes, Delaney's only 61 and his contract runs through 2013.

When you add up the issues, the Traditionalists seem to be losing battles they should be winning, and winning battles they should be losing.  Getting a twelfth team was the right move.  Moving The Game is a bad idea.  Having a playoff is good for the schools, the players, the fans and the sponsors.  At the end of the day, it is not the Traditionalists or the Modernists who win, it is King Delaney.  All yield, or be run over.

What to expect in week one

Let's all rejoice.  The off-season is officially finished.  The first game is just six days away, and week one is certainly going to be full of surprises.

The top stories in week one will be:

First, there will be two upsets in the SEC. Louisville pulls off a big win against Kentucky, and Southern Miss beats South Carolina. The Cardinals and Wildcats both have new coaches and both are rebuilding making this just a mild upset. However, UK has been good over the last few seasons, and Louisville has been terrible.  Charlie Strong will have his team ready to battle, and the Cardinals earn a close victory at home.

The Gamecocks have too many off-the-field distractions right now that are hurting its preparation for the Golden Eagles. Additionally, SC has a look ahead game against Georgia in week two, and traditionally the team has started slow under Spurrier.  Both teams are good defensively so the scoring will be minimal, but look for a turnover late in the game costing the Gamecocks a win and a chance to build some momentum heading into its showdown with the Dawgs.

Second, the MWC will shine.  One of the most heated discussions every season centers on the strength of the mid-majors compared to the BCS conferences.  The Big Six refuse to admit that little brother is actually pretty good.  They will have to acquiesce a little after Utah beats Big East favorite Pittsburgh and TCU downs Oregon State.  If BYU could pull the upset in Washington and Colorado State beats Colorado, big brother won’t be home for dinner.

Third, LSU throttles UNC in the Chick Fil A Kickoff Game.  What should have been a great game is quickly becoming an afterthought.  The Tar Heels’ woes continued this week when the school announced that they are investigating the possibility of academic misconduct.  UNC is already being investigated by the NCAA for possible misconduct regarding players receiving improver benefits from agents.  The Heels' season may implode before it starts.  The allegations will certainly hurt the Heels’ focus, and the Tigers will benefit.  LSU needs this win, and the Tigers will get it.

Fourth, Virginia Tech ends Boise State’s dream season before it begins.  With 20 returning starters, the Broncos are poised to run the table and sneak into the BCS Title Game if they get by the Hokies on Labor Day night in FedEx Field.  Led by junior QB Kellen Moore, Boise’s high octane offense is a scoring machine – averaging nearly 43 points per game in 2009.  The telling sign though is the Broncos’ averaged just 18 points against Oregon and TCU, the only two teams with a pulse on defense that they faced all season.

The Hokies return a potent offense led by QB Tyrod Taylor and RB Ryan Williams.  Beamer is going to run the ball straight at Boise to keep its offense off the field.  His special teams’ unit will also make a critical play or two giving the Hokies an advantage.  Va Tech gets a big victory, and Boise heads home knowing its chances of playing for the title are dead.

Lastly, Michigan beats UConn raising the hopes of the Wolverine faithful that year three under Rodriguez will be the turning point back to college football relevancy.  After two disastrous seasons, the fans in Ann Arbor are anxious for a rebound.  Losing senior CB Troy Woolfolk to a season ending injury won’t help the cause, but there are enough pieces in place to have a mildly successful year.

The key might hinge on a Rodriguez finding a starting quarterback.  The job was Forcier’s to lose, but he has been in the doghouse.  Robinson is a running threat, but his arm is suspect.  Freshman Devin Gardner has been impressive in camp, but does Rodriguez really want to go through another season with a freshman QB?  Not having the true #1 is a major concern, and not having a proven running back only makes the situation worse.  Fortunately for Michigan, the early season schedule is manageable.  They need every win they can get before October, or it could be three and done for the Rich Rod experiment.

No need to write a long article to discuss the possibility of moving The Game from the end of the season - one of the worst ideas ever. Smith and Brandon should protest, and Delaney should be forced out if he pushes it through the conference.

Five Players Who Will Have Breakout Seasons in 2010

It happens every year.  Everyone is thinking, “Where the heck did this guy come from?”  Starting in late September, a select group of players not really discussed before the season start making headlines.  In 2009, the top two were Toby Gerhart and Ndamakong Suh who quickly showed fans outside of Palo Alto and Lincoln that they were dominant and deserving of the attention.

The Top Five players flying under the radar right now, but definitely ready for breakout season in 2010 will be:

Jerrod Johnson, QB, Texas A&M.  Long known for its Wrecking Crew defenses, the tide has turned in College Station.  The Aggies put up over 6000 yards of offense in 2009, and Johnson led the way passing for 3500 yards with 30 TD’s and rushing for close to 800 yards and eight TD’s.  Very few people know Johnson outside of Big 12 territory.  They will this year.

BJ Daniels, QB, USF.  After Matt Groethe was lost for the season in week three last year, Daniels took over the Bulls offense. He finished the season passing for close to 2000 yards with 14 TD’s and rushing for a 1000 yards with nine TD’s.  With new HC Skip Holtz guiding him and 10 returning starters on offense, Daniels is poised to have a highly productive season.  If he plays well against Florida in week two, Daniels will be a household name.

Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn.  Almost by default, Newton has to be in the discussion.  OC Gus Malzahn has one of the best offensive minds in the game, and Newton will be the beneficiary.  He’s huge, 6’6”/250lbs, and has a big arm.  With games against Miss St, Clemson and South Carolina in Sept, Newton has a chance to get out the gate quickly, and show the college football world that he’s an elite level QB.

Shane Vereen, RB, Cal.  HC Jeff Tedford is quietly building a running back dynasty in Berkeley.  Over the last six seasons, J.J Arrington, Marshawn Lynch and Jahvid Best have been dominant.  Vereen is next in line.  Filling in for Best after he went down with an injury in 2009, Vereen rushed for almost a 1000 yards with 12 TD’s.  Despite having to share the load this season, he’ll likely finish with1500 yards making him a star.

Adam Robinson, RB, Iowa.  At the start of the 2009 season, Iowa was thin at the running back position. Expected starter Jewell Hampton injured his knee during the summer and was lost for the season.  Robinson steps in to win the job, and finishes the year with just over 800 yards and five TD’s.  Although he’ll share time with fellow sophomore Brandon Wegher, Robinson will get the bulk of the carries for the Hawkeyes.  With games against Penn St, Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan St in October, Robinson has the potential to steal the spotlight away from his fellow Hawkeye and all-world DL Adrian Clayborn.

Coaches on the hot seat

Rich Rodriguez.  No coach enters 2010 more on the hot seat than Rodriguez.  Forget the NCAA rules infraction violations; this is about wins and losses.  Rodriguez was hired to change the way Michigan played football, and so far the only change has been the losses piling up on him.  Fans and alumni are growing impatient   Year three will prove whether his philosophy can work at UM.  Making matters more difficult is the Big Ten is loaded for the first time since 2005.  The Wolverines play Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn St and Ohio State.  All are likely losses meaning 8-4 is best case scenario.  That may not be enough to save his job.

Rich Neuheisel.  Amazingly, UCLA has had just one ten win season since 2000, going 10-2 in 2005.  Despite the NCAA problems he created at both Washington and Colorado, Neuheisel was successful at both schools.  Like Rodriguez, Neuheisel is his third year, and the clock is ticking to show significant improvement in the program.  With non-conference games at Kansas State and Texas and PAC 10 games at Oregon, Cal and Washington, the Bruins may not finish the regular season above .500 again meaning Neuheisel may not get a fourth year.

Ralph Freidgen.  2009 was a disaster for the Terrapins finishing 2-10.  Friedgen was a hot commodity after winning the ACC in his first season in 2001.  He is 66-46 overall and 4-2 in bowls, but there have been only two good seasons since 2004.  Unfortunately, memories are short in College Park.  Prior to Friedgen’s arrival, Maryland was abysmal. The Terps will be much improved this year, but with a new Athletic Director coming in, anything less than eight wins may cost Friedgen his job.

Les Miles.  Even though he won a national title just three years ago, Miles is not fully embraced by the Tiger faithful.  Seeing the rise of Alabama under Saban is not helping his cause.  The SEC West is loaded this year as Ol Miss, Miss St, Ark, Bama and Auburn will all be good.  LSU also plays Florida, North Carolina and West Virginia.  With just ten returning starters, the Tigers may struggle to win eight games, and that will mean a new coach will on the sidelines in 2011.

Dan Hawkins.  Right about now, Hawkins is probably thinking he should have stayed at Boise State.  Entering his fifth season at Colorado, Hawkins is16-33 and has just one bowl appearance. Granted, the situation he inherited was a disaster, but there have been very few signs that the program is improving.  With Colorado leaving for the PAC 10 next year, the administration that failed to pull the plug last year may be forced to do it after this season.  Hawkins will need to win the North to save his job.

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Quick Look - Big 12

The Big XII enters the 2010 season with an image crisis.  Colorado and Nebraska will be moving on to the PAC 10 and Big Ten respectively, Texas and Oklahoma have lost the last two BCS Championship games and two coaches were fired for alleged player abuse. On top of that, the conferences' two premier faces, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford, are now in the NFL.  No one could blame Dan Beebe if sought outside help to help re-brand the Big XII's tarnished reputation.

Fortunately for Beebe, there is good news to help ease the pain.  Oklahoma appears ready to rise to the top once again.  The Sooners battled through a difficult 2009 season, but many of the key players return including QB Landry Jones, RB DeMarco Murray and LB Travis Lewis.  Though Stoops has lost a little of his shine by losing five BCS games, he is still a fantastic coach who knows how to win.  The schedule is difficult, but manageable.  The Sooners should be able to win the more wide-open South, and get a date with Nebraska in the Big XII title game. 

It's no surprise that after two seasons Bo Pelini has put Nebraska back in the national discussion.  There is still a lot of work to do, but the Cornhuskers are definitely the top team in the North division.  Whether 2010 is a championship season rests largely on the offense's ability to produce more points.  Every significant player returns from a unit that underperformed last year.  If they can get their average points above 30, they might just steal the championship away from Oklahoma. 

The last time Texas failed to win at least ten games was 2000.  Under Mack Brown, the Longhorns have been a model of consistency.  He's probably smiling right now knowing that most people are thinking his young team is in for a rebuilding year.  They better watch out.  After Garrett Gilbert took his lumps in the first half against Alabama in the title game, he seemed very comfortable leading the offense in the second half against an elite defense.  That experience will carry over into this season, and Texas might be a team to avoid late in the season.  The biggest question is whether or not they can find a featured rusher. If they find one, Texas may stay on top. 

The Big XII has two new coaches.  Taking over at Texas Tech is Tommy Tuberville, and Turner Gill is new head man at Kansas.  Tuberville was a great coach at Auburn and Ol Miss, and Gill performed miracles as Buffalo's coach.  Despite the turmoil that led to Mike Leach's and Mark Mangino's dismissals, both Tuberville and Gill step into good situations.  Texas Tech returns 14 starters from a 9-4 team, and Kansas returns 13 from a 5-7 team.  The Red Raiders and Jayhawks will be stronger than expected.

Despite the offseason hastles, the Big XII has several elite level teams that can compete for the BCS Championship this year.  Oklahoma appears to be the favorite, but Texas and Nebraska are up for the challenge. 

Coaches Preseason Poll Surprises

The USA Today Coaches Top 25 preseason poll was released on August 6^th, and as expected, defending champion Alabama sits at number one receiving 55 first place votes.  Rounding out the top five are Ohio State, Florida, Texas and Boise State.

Top Five Surprises

Alabama at number one is probably by default since no other team is a clear favorite.  If the Crimson Tide repeats, it would be nothing short of a miracle considering they return just two starters on defense.  Helping the cause is the return of Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and quarterback Greg McElroy, but no team wins the SEC without a top ranked defense.  The Tide will lose a game or two as Saban reloads his defense this season.

Florida at 3rd.  The Gators certainly have the talent on the roster to be great, but even HC Urban Meyer might say it is a stretch to place Florida this high after losing Tim Tebow, Joe Hayden, Riley Cooper, Aaron Hernandez, Maurkice Pouncey, Brandon Spikes, Carlos Dunlap and Major Wright.  They also lost DC Charlie Strong.  If Florida wins ten games, Meyer should be considered Coach of the Year.

Miami, Fl at 13^th.  With 13 returning starters, including QB Jacory Harris, the Hurricanes will likely be better this year.  Their record may not reflect it though.  Miami’s early schedule is brutal playing at #2 Ohio State, #15 Pittsburgh and Clemson and then returning home to play in-state rival #20 Florida State.  The Hurricanes do not get a break considering they also play #6 Va Tech, #17 Ga Tech and #18 North Carolina and finish the regular season against South Florida.

Iowa at 10th.  The Hawkeyes finished #7 last year after going 11-2 and winning the Orange Bowl.  They return all of their key players including Ricky Stanzi, Adam Robinson, Adrian Clayborn and Brett Greenwood.  Iowa also plays Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan State at home.  It is possible that the coaches remember the Hawkeyes playing better on the road last year than at home.  Regardless, HC Ferentz has a championship caliber team that will likely be undefeated when the Buckeyes roll into Kinnick on November 20^th.

West Virginia at 24^th.  The Mountaineers are loaded returning 16 starters from a squad that finished 9-4 last season.  They are breaking in a new quarterback, but the offense will be productive with the return of Noel Divine who rushed for almost 1600 yards in 2009.  The defense should be the best in the Big East.  If WVU can sneak out a win at LSU on September 25^th, they could be a darkhorse for the BCS title game.

I like the Texas/Notre Dame series. College football needs more of these non-conference match-ups. If Kelly can turn around the Irish - a big if, then these will be exciting games between two historically great programs.