Four Downs and a little OT about week three
Week two featured some pivotal games both in and out of conference. Week three brings more. Here are a few things to expect.
First, the ACC is going to have another humiliating week. Things are bad when the ACC has to point to Virginia’s 17-14 loss against USC as a bright spot in last weekend’s conference beat down. ACC’s misery is going to continue. Clemson is at Auburn, Maryland is at West Virginia and Wake Forest visits Stanford. On top of that, Duke gets Alabama, Florida State hosts BYU, NC State plays Cincinnati and Va Tech battles East Carolina. Only FSU looks like a probable win.
Making matters worse is another one of the ACC’s better teams is going to collect a second loss. North Carolina and Georgia Tech collide in an early ACC Coastal game, and the loser will have a huge hole to climb out of if they want to contend for the division. Woe is the ACC right now.
Second Down
The loser of the Georgia/Arkansas game will be out of the SEC race. The Bulldogs are already on thin ice after losing to South Carolina. Another loss will be the knockout blow. On the other side of the ball, the Razorbacks host the Tide next week making this a must win if they have any hopes of winning the West division.
At first glance, it appears that Arkansas has the upper hand. Georgia looked powerless on offense against the Gamecocks last Saturday. Not having A.J Green may have contributed to some of the Bulldogs weak performance, but they were terrible running the ball and worse on third down conversions. They won in a shootout last year against the Razorbacks, but Georgia will not be able to do that again.
Despite Georgia’s offensive woes, the defense has looked pretty good. They gave up a lot of yards against South Carolina, but not a lot of points. For all of the weapons Arkansas has, they still struggled to score against La Monroe last week until the fourth quarter. Playing at home, Georgia needs to keep the score low, and maybe squeak out a narrow victory.
Third Down
The Iowa/Arizona game looks like the best non-conference game of the week. Initial results suggest the Hawkeyes are good, but how good? Their first road trip of the season should provide a stiff test to determine the answer.
The Wildcats are balanced offensively, but they definitely favor passing. QB Nic Foles has gotten off to a hot start passing for 574 yards and three touchdowns. His favorite target has been Juron Criner. Arizona also runs the ball well. Nic Grisby and Greg Nwoko provide a solid 1-2 punch from the backfield.
Like Arizona, Iowa’s offense has looked great in the first two games. Ken O’ Keefe loves to run the ball to set up play action, and so far it has worked to perfection. Adam Robinson has 265 yards rushing with four TD’s, and Ricky Stanzi has passed for 433 yards and three touchdowns.
Iowa’s defensive game plan will be to stop the run and make Foles beat them through the air. Clayborn, Ballard and Klug form one of the best defensive lines in FBS. They have not allowed a rushing TD, and have given up just 143 yards on the ground. Even though the Hawkeyes are great at stopping the run, Arizona must commit to running the ball though if they want to stay in this game. If they become one dimensional, Hawkeyes win comfortably.
The Wildcats game plan will focus on stopping Robinson. Stanzi has the tools to beat any team, but he has shown in the past that he can make some costly mistakes. Arizona’s odds are better to force Iowa to have to pass the ball. The Wildcat’s secondary is young, but opportunistic. They can make some big plays to keep the momentum in Arizona’s favor.
The game will be won in the trenches, and this likely means a convincing win for the Hawkeyes. If Arizona wants to win, they have to be perfect fundamentally. Tackle well, block well, and keep the penalties to a minimum. Easier said than done.
Fourth Down
The Big 12 South Division will take shape when Texas and Texas Tech clash in Lubbock Saturday night. Since 2006, this series has been extraordinary, especially the last two seasons. Expect the same this year. The winner will fight Oklahoma and Texas A&M for the South title.
The Longhorns are 2-0, but the wins over Rice and Wyoming have been rather mundane. No one anticipated fireworks from Texas after losing McCoy and Shipley, but the offense has looked out of sync. Perhaps transitioning to a more balanced attack is taking longer to implement. The defense has been better, but they have not really been tested. The Red Raiders will provide the challenge.
When Texas Tech hired Tommy Tuberville, they thought they were getting the opposite of Mike Leach. So far it looks like much of the same. The Red Raiders are averaging 335 yards passing and 43 points per game. For the record, they averaged 386 yds and 37 points last year. Tuberville was also supposed to bring his great defensive mind to the sideline. Leach must have left the cupboard bare because they have not been very good defensively.
This game is going to come down to making plays defensively. The edge goes to Texas, but Tuberville is known for coaching well in big games. If he can keep the game close, the Gambler might just come away with the win.
OT
After week two, all the talk about Heisman candidates is absurd. Sure, Robinson, Murray, Pryor, McElroy and a slew of others have looked formidable, but there is too much football left to seriously consider anyone a favorite. Let’s check back after week ten.
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