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Alabama's Defense or Oregon's Offense: Which One Would You Rather Have?

The No. 1 team in country has the 20th-ranked defense in FBS.  The No. 3 team has the first-ranked offense in FBS.

If you had to choose, which one would you rather have in making the run for the BCS championship?

Gut instinct suggests defense, and you would be right.

Over the last 10 years, just five teams have made it to the BCS championship game with a defense ranked outside of the top 10, OSU ('02), OK ('04), USC ('05), OSU ('06) and OK ('08).  OSU is the only team to win the title, but their defense was ranked 23rd. 

Having a strong defense is necessary to make the title game, and it is likely necessary to win the game.  Nine out the last 10 BCS champions have had defenses in the top 10.  The champion also had the higher ranked defense seven times. 

Offensive firepower has been less common for the BCS championship teams since 2000.  Thirteen teams have made it to the title game without a top-10 offense, seven without a top-25 offense. 

Eight teams have won the championship without a top-10 offense, four without a top-25 offense.  In 10 years, only three teams have won the title with a higher ranked offense. 

These statistics do not suggest that an effective offense is unnecessary to make it to the game or win the game.  It just means it is less important to the outcome.

Balance is important though.  Having a strong defense with a productive offense is the best combination to make it to the championship and win.  The Buckeyes in 2002, with an offense ranked 70th and defense 23rd, are the only exception.

Looking at the top three teams right now, recent history favors Bama and OSU.  The Tide are ranked 20th in both total offense and defense, OSU is 21st in offense and fifth in defense, and Oregon is first on offense and 52nd on defense. 

The most balanced team is definitely Alabama.  With offensive firepower, an opportunistic defense and solid special teams play, the Tide are nicely positioned to be the first team to win back-to-back BCS championships.

Five Predictions for Saturday's Showdowns

Alabama vs. Florida:  The two best teams in the SEC collide in the regular season for the first time since 2006.  Payback for the Gators?  No.  The Ingram train will be rolling.  Tide 31-21.

Stanford vs. Oregon.  Oregon's offense has scored at will through four weeks, but they have yet to play a defense with a pulse. Game is in Autzen so that favors the Ducks, but the Cardinal get the victory 45-35.

Iowa vs. Penn St.  The Hawkeyes took one on the chin two weeks ago at Arizona.  They cannot afford a second loss.  The Lions are OK, but don't have the weapons to win on the road yet.  Iowa 27-14.

Oklahoma vs. Texas.  The Longhorns' loss to UCLA last week took some luster off this game, but it is still an intense rivalry.  Oklahoma is 4-0, but has looked vulnerable against inferior opponents.  The Sooners will run Murray all afternoon to get a huge Big 12 South victory.  Oklahoma 28-24.

Wisconsin vs. Michigan State.  John Clay goes against Greg Jones.  The Badgers should line up and run the ball right down the Spartans throats.  Maybe Dantonio's return sparks MSU to a big win.  Unlikely. Wisconsin 37-24.

OT:

Air Force vs. Navy.  Is this the year that the Falcons finally beat the Midshipmen to get a step closer to winning the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy?  Yes.  This will be a great game.  Air Force 31-28.