The first month of the 2009 college football season is in the books. After four games, we know a lot about the direction of this season. With this in mind, here is a breakdown of the surprises and disappointments to date. (as usual, this can change by week six. I reserve the right to frequently change my mind)
Surprises:
Houston is good enough to compete in the Big 12. The Cougars are 2-0 against the South division which is considered one of the toughest in college football. The WAC and MWC usually generate the BCS buzz, but this year may belong to Conference USA. If they beat Mississippi State in two weeks, that's a 3-0 sweep of the big boys. Houston's conference schedule is manageable so they might just be BCS buster this year. TCU and Boise are also in the mix which I'm sure will stoke the playoff fire as the season progresses.
Auburn's offensive turnaround is nothing short of a miracle. Last year, Auburn averaged 17.3 points per game. This year, 45.25. This is close to a 300% gain in points per game. Guz Malzahn did wonders for Arkansas and Tulsa, and is now doing it with the Tigers. Considered an afterthought in the SEC race, Auburn is a legitimate title contender.
Interjection: How good would Ohio State be this season with an OC like Malzahn? Seriously.
Missouri has not missed a beat after losing Chase Daniels, Chase Kaufman and Jeremy Macklin. In case you wondered, these three combined for just over 7000 yards of offense and over 40 TD's last year. This year, the Tigers are 16th in total offense and 20th in scoring average. Missou's competition has been pretty good too with Illinois, BG and Nevada. Their conference schedule is brutal drawing Texas and OSU from the South, but I like their chances in the Big 12 North race.
Wisconsin is 4-0 and playing much better than they were at the end of 2008. All of the games have been at home and the competition has been just ok, but for a team that lost their identity last year, 2009 is starting well for the Badgers. October will prove challenging with games at Minn and OSU and at home against Iowa and Purdue. Splitting these four games likely means making a good bowl game.
Disappointments:
Michigan State. Coming off a 9-4 season with 15 returning starters, expectations were high in East Lansing to compete for a Big Ten title. Sitting at 1-3 with losses to ND, Wisky and Cent Mich and the only win is against FCS Montana State, the only conclusion is 2009 is not going well for the Spartans. The road schedule in the Big Ten is pretty tame with games at Minn, Purdue and Ill. A rebound is possible, but not likely considering the defense is weak.
Notre Dame. I know the Irish are 3-1, but this team has looked pretty average in beating Mich St and Purdue. ND could easily be sitting 1-3. They're not, and that is a testament to better leadership on the field, but the special season most pundits were predicting is in jeopardy.
Heisman Hopefuls stats. Don't get me wrong, Tebow and McCoy are having fine seasons and will be vying for the hardware at the end of the season, but comparatively, their stats are below expectations right now. With Tebow's concussion, McCoy can gain a huge advantage in the coming weeks. Should be an interesting race.
That's the list for now.
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