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Teams That Will Disappoint in 2010

Just as every season there are a few teams that come out of nowhere to shock the college football world, there are a handful of teams that get hyped only to crash and burn quickly.  Recent examples include Georgia in 2008 and Mississippi in 2009.  The five teams most likely to disappoint in 2010 are:

 

LSU. With the talent on LSU’s roster, the Tigers are seeking another SEC title – which lately has meant the BCS title too.  Unfortunately, LSU’s schedule is a minefield loaded with games that will ultimately cost the Tigers a shot at a great season. Beyond travelling to Auburn, Florida and Arkansas, LSU has a brutal non-conference schedule with games against West Virginia and North Carolina. 

 

Pitt.  Coming off their best season since 2004, Pitt seems to have the pieces in play to make a run at the Big East title.  High expectations are understandable considering the Panthers return All-American running back Dion Lewis who rushed for almost 1800 yards last year.  Like LSU, Pitt has a difficult non-conference schedule including games at Utah and Notre Dame and a home game against Miami.  Coupled with Wannstedt’s history of losing some bizarre games, Pitt will underperform this year.

 

Miami.  Once considered college football’s most elite program, the Hurricanes have not been a player in the national discussion since 2003. With QB Jacory Harris and an experienced defense leading the way, there are legitimate reasons to expect a BCS bowl caliber season.  Miami will not get it though.  After their tune up game against Florida A&M, Miami plays three consecutive road games at Ohio State, Pitt and Clemson, and then returns home to play longtime rival Florida State.  The Hurricanes may be improved, but their record won’t necessarily show it.

 

Iowa.  Iowa had a tremendous 2009 season going 11-2 capped with a convincing win over Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl.  Since the Hawkeyes return almost all of their key players and get Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin at home this year, it is easy to understand why they should be a favorite to win the Big Ten.  Despite the advantages, Iowa will underperform this year.  Ricky Stanzi is a gunslinger and will cost the Hawkeyes two critical games. 

 

Arizona.  After suffering through a few miserable rebuilding years, Mike Stoops has this program headed in the right direction after achieving back to back bowl seasons.  The Wildcats might take a step backward in 2010 because they are rebuilding their defense.  Arizona also looked awful in their 33-0 loss to Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl which signals that they are still not ready to compete for the Pac 10 title. 

 

Bonus: 

 

Texas.  This could be a boneheaded prediction because Texas is always considered a national title contender.  The drop off won’t be considerable, but losing McCoy and Shipley will impact the Longhorns this year.  In fact, Texas might lose back to back games for the first time since 2007 when they play Oklahoma and Nebraska in early October. Though it might be a stretch to call a 10 win season a disappointment, anything less than a Big 12 title is a down year for Texas. 

College Football's Surprise Teams 2010

The college football season kicks off in 52 days.  Just like the heat wave blanketing the East Coast, the debates are raging about the BCS contenders.  Will Bama repeat?  Can OSU break through with Pryor?  Will the Big East or ACC get a team back into BCS Championship?  Does Boise deserve a shot if they go undefeated again?  Can Brian Kelly work the same magic at ND as he did with Cincinnati?  Over the next seven weeks, all the major questions leading into the 2010 season will be analyzed. 

First up is finding out who will be this year's surprise teams.  Every season there seems to be a handful of teams that come out of nowhere and capture the headlines. Their impact can be monumental, e.g., Rutgers' dramatic victory over Louisville in 2006, or just part of a feel good story, e.g.'s, Houston, Idaho and Temple in 2009.  Regardless, these surprise teams always make a splash.

The top five teams to surprise in 2010 will be:

Notre Dame.  After under performing over the last two seasons, the Fighting Irish are poised to make another run at a BCS bowl game.  Kelly steps into a perfect situation - low expectations with a solid group of returning players.  The schedule is not easy, but it is manageable.  Look for ND to post a nine or ten win season. 

Boston College.  BC returns a a lot of talent from 2009's 8-5 squad.  The schedule is not difficult - in fact, the Eagles should finish the season on a six game win streak. HC Spaziani's defense will be much improved, and that should make BC an ACC title contender.

South Florida.  The game against Florida on Sept. 11th will tell a lot about the Bulls.  While no one is expecting a win, USF should make it a competitive game.  New HC Skip Holtz did wonders at ECU winning back to back CUSA titles, and he should bring the focus and discipline that seemed to be lacking at times under Leavitt.  He also has the luxury of inheriting ten returning starters on offense. USF will contend for the Big East title. 

Michigan State.  At times last season, Michigan State looked great, and other times they looked like they belonged in Division III. HC Dantonio is a solid coach, and the pieces are in place to make a run into the upper third of the Big Ten.  If the Spartans make it through October with just one loss, they should get to nine wins and play in a New Year's Day bowl game. 

Texas A&M.  With Texas and Oklahoma State likely rebuilding this year, the Big 12 South appears to be open for a new contender - even if it is temporary.  The Aggies return the nucleus of talent on offense that averaged over 32 pts per game and gained over 6000 yards in 09.  The defense looks to be improved with nine returning starters.  November's schedule is brutal with OK, Nebraska and Texas, but two are at home.  A&M is a contender, and will likely make it to the Cotton Bowl.

Bonus Team is Auburn.  Auburn's pick of Gene Chizik to replace Tommy Tuberville was widely criticized, but if his first season on the sidelines was any indication of the future, school officials will get the last laugh.  Chizik's decision to hire Gus Malzahn as the OC and Ted Roof paid off, and year two might bring some serious dividends.  With 15 returning starters and more depth, the Tigers will challenge the Tide for the SEC West crown. 

Next Up:  The top five teams most likely to disappoint.

Dr. Tressel and Mr. Pryor Deliver

Earlier this season, I was in the camp of critical observers of Tressel's offensive strategy and Pryor's inability to read defenses.  After the Purdue game, I was highly critical of OSU's offense - not just this season, but every season under Tressel.  My primary criticism was based on the Tressel's outward resistance/apathy toward having a top 10 offense to go along with the top ten defense each year.  How many championships have been lost because the offense could not deliver in big games?  Several.

As expected the win against Oregon in the Rose Bowl has temporarily silenced the critics.  Tressel's pass first approach was not expected by anyone, especially Oregon.  The Senator gave the pupil a good lesson in football...balance wins games.  OSU had offense and defense.  Oregon had little of either.  If not for special teams play, Oregon may have not scored. 

Maybe the Rose Bowl game reflects Tressel's ability to bend his offensive philosophy.  The defensive side of the ball made the change three years ago, and has been paying dividends for two seasons.  Compared to 2007, OSU's co-defensive coordinator's Heacock and Fickel, have shown a fantastic ability to adjust to the current spread/no huddle offenses.  The spread offense is no longer a thorn in OSU's side.  The coaching staff has recruited faster players who close the gaps much quicker.  If Tressel has made a change on the offensive side of the ball, 2010 will be a special season.

Title Weekend, Bama Should Roll

Championship weekend got off to a hot start Thursday night as the Oregon Ducks beat the Oregon State Beavers 37-33 in the Civil War sending the Ducks to the Rose Bowl.  Oregon versus Ohio State should be a great game.

 

Today’s slate brings us the CUSA, SEC, Big 12 and ACC Championship games, and technically the Big East championship game since the winner of the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati game wins the Big East.  Central Michigan beat Ohio University to win the MAC last night. 

 

SEC

 

A rematch of last year’s SEC championship game.  Undefeated #1 Florida against undefeated #2 Alabama.  Tim Tebow is seeking his second SEC championship (as a starter) and his third BCS Title trip.  The Heisman Trophy is also on the line.  Bama is trying to get to their first SEC Championship since 1999.  Running back Mark Ingram is also a legitimate Heisman candidate.  A strong performance against the Gators might propel him to the top.

 

Both defenses are elite. There are few, if any, weaknesses on this side of the ball for both the Tide and Gators.  Bama’s defense might have the edge now that Florida defensive end Carlos Dunlop was suspended for the game following a DUI earlier this week. 

 

The key for Bama, stop Tebow from being Tebow.  If Bama can get to Tebow and put pressure on him, the Tide will win this game.  This is a huge if considering no team has really been able to get to Tebow this year, but no other team has had Bama’s defense either.  Saban will have his team ready to attack.

 

The keys for Florida is stop Ingram and disrupt Tide QB Greg McElroy.  Again, no other team has yet to do this for an entire game this year, but Florida has the defensive talent to stop Bama’s offense.  The loss of Dunlop will hurt though.

 

The money says to go with Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow.  I am going to side with Bama though.  The loss of Dunlop is going to impact the Gators ability to stop the run.  Bama wins 21-17. 

 

Big 12

 

Texas vs. Nebraska.  Two great programs collide once again.  Texas is led by Heisman Trophy candidate Colt McCoy.  His offense is clicking at the right time of the season, and is clearly the favorite in this game.  Under second year head coach Bo Pelini, Nebraska is back playing for the championship.  As expected, the Cornhuskers’ defense is ranked in the top 20 in the FBS.  The defense is led by Ndamukong Suh who is a beast in the middle of the Dline. 

 

This game will be close until Texas opens up a comfortable lead in the third quarter.  This will force Nebraska to press on offense and make mistakes.  Nebraska is still a season or two away from being in elite again.  Texas wins 42-21 and goes to the BCS title game again.

 

ACC

 

Talk about a downer.  Georgia Tech and Clemson were riding high before last weekend when an average Georgia team beat the Yellow Jackets and an average South Carolina team throttled the Tigers.  These two defeats did not help the image of the ACC.  That being said, Clemson is playing for their first ACC title since 1991 and Georgia Tech is looking for their first title since 1998. 

 

These teams collided in the second game of the 2009 season.  Georgia Tech won 30-27 in a back and forth game.  Look for more of the same tomorrow.  Clemson will exact revenge this time.  Tigers win 34-27.

 

Big East

 

Cincinnati vs. Pitt.  Amid the Notre Dame coaching controversy is Cincinnati’s quest for a Big East title and an undefeated regular season.  Head Coach Brian Kelly is the obvious leader for the open position at ND, but has this impacted his Bearcats’ preparations for Pitt?  Probably a little. 

 

Amazingly, Pitt head coach Dave Wannstedt has turned his team into a winner.  They slipped a little last week against rival West Virginia, but the Panthers are solid and should give the Bearcats a tough game.   Cinci will win the game, but they’ll have to come from behind to do it.  Bearcats win 28-24. 

 

Conference USA

 

Houston vs. East Carolina.  Houston is explosive.  With wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State, the Cougars have proven they can run with the big boys.  East Carolina has played well down the stretch, but the Pirates lack some of the power they has last season.  This will be a close game with a lot of offense which favors Houston.  Cougars win 45-42, and get their first league title since 2006. 

 

All the games should be good this weekend.  The upset will be Bama over Florida, but don’t be surprised if Pitt beats Cinci.

Beer, Chili, Football - Life's Grand

If you love great food and drink like I do, you need to check out The Atlantic’s Food Channel.  I must confess that I work for The Atlantic Media Company so I am biased, but this section is simply outstanding.  With this in mind;

 

Beer of the Week:  Andechs Dopplebock Dunkel

Food of the Week:  Chili.  The Nor’easter created by Ida has sat over DC for about three days now.  This has put me in the mood for chili.

Movie of the Week:  Without a doubt, Friday the 13^th, Part I. 

 

 

Week Eleven

 

Last week, I went 4-2 again.  I called the Stanford over Oregon upset.  Blew it big time with PSU over the Buckeyes.  Glad to be wrong on that pick.  Six unbeatens remain; Texas, Florida, Alabama, TCU, Boise and Cincinnati.  The flaws of the BCS system will again rear its ugly head. 

 

BCS Bowl Projections:  (always sub to change based on results)

 

Rose:  OSU vs. Oregon

Orange:  Clemson vs. Boise

Sugar:  Florida vs. Cincinnati

Fiesta:  TCU vs. USC

Title:  Alabama vs. Texas

 

Games of the Week:

 

ACC

 

Florida State vs. Wake.  Hard pick over the Miami vs. North Carolina game. I am picking this game because the loser will not make a bowl game.  In the past, Wake not making a bowl game was common.  Jim Grobe changed the expectations in Winston-Salem, and has made Wake a consistent ACC challenger.  If FSU drops this game, the will miss making a bowl for the first time in 27 years – this is assuming the Seminoles lose to Florida and end up with seven losses.  Ouch.

 

Big East

 

Cincinnati vs. West Virginia.  It’s plug and play down in the Queen City.  Pike goes down, Collaros comes in and shines.  All coaches should be so fortunate.  WVU has been playing rather poorly over the last month.  The Bearcats should roll over the Mountaineers, but crazier things have happened.  Just not in this game.  Bearcats win 42-17.

 

Big Ten

 

OSU vs. Iowa.  It’s funny how one week makes a difference in a season.  When OSU lost to Purdue, the sky was falling.  When they beat PSU, they are gaining momentum at the right time of the year.  Last week’s win confirms what most people already know.  OSU owns the Big Ten, and if the Buckeyes do not turn over the ball, they do not lose a game.  Period.  The talent gap is just that wide.  Iowa comes into the Shoe with a chance to win the Big Ten.  They’ll have to do this without their QB Ricky Stanzi who had surgery on his ankle is done for the regular season.  Buckeyes win pretty comfortably 28-10.

 

Big 12

 

This is a tie.  Oklahoma St vs. Texas Tech and Kansas State vs. Missouri.  The OSU/TT game is a battle for 2^nd place in the Big 12 South division which may include a trip to the Cotton Bowl.  OSU will win this high scoring game.  Kansas State’s rise to the top of the Big 12 North standings did not take long under head coach Bill Snyder.  Snyder built this program in the 90’s, left for a few seasons, and now has the Wildcats eyeing the North championship in his first season back on the sideline.  Missou has looked awful since losing to Nebraska last month.  KState is home so I like them to win, 23-17. 

 

PAC 10

 

Stanford vs. USC.  The loser is out of the conference championship race.  Stanford’s unlikely upset over USC two years ago was the beginning of Jim Harbaugh’s influence over the Cardinal program.  This looks like a very good game.  Stanford runs the ball well (Toby Gerhart 1200 yds/16TD’s) and passes well (Andrew Luck 2000 yds/11TD’s).  If the game was in Palo Alto, I’d pick Stanford.  It’s not so I am going with USC in a fourth quarter battle, 24-21. 

 

SEC

 

Auburn vs. Georgia.  Old, bitter rivalry.  Georgia is 5-4 with three tough games remaining.  The Bulldogs are in serious trouble, and might not make a bowl game.  With back to back wins over Ol Miss and Furman, Auburn appears to have recovered from the three game losing streak in the middle of October.  Keep in mind, Georgia’s gotten the better of Auburn for three straight seasons.  I don’t think the Dawgs will make it four.  Auburn wins 31-24. 

 

Other Notable Game:

 

TCU vs. Utah.  TCU is ranked 4^th in the BCS Standings, Utah 16^th.  Last year, the Utes barely edged the Horned Frogs in Provo.  The Horned Frogs will get their revenge at home, 34-21. 

No Way LSU Beats Bama This Week

Beer of the Week:  Fat Tire Amber.  First had it in 1995 thanks to a dear friend, and I’ve love it since. 

 

Sports Movie of the Week:  Rocky.  On again last night and just as good as the first time I watched it.

 

Food of the Week:  NY Strip with a nice big baked potato. 

 

Evidence the world might be ending:

 

Most people know I grew up in Westerville, Ohio.  Until recently, there were two high schools, North and South.  Traditionally, both were football powerhouses in central Ohio.  North went 0-10 this season.  How in the world does this happen?  Where is Warrior pride?  0-10?  Wow. 

 

Games of Week 10

 

4-2 last week.  Here’s an interesting statistic demonstrating the roll USC has been on this decade.  USC’s eight losses from the 2003 season up to the Oregon loss were by a combined 29 points.  The Trojans lost by 27 to the Ducks.  Amazing.

 

ACC

 

Clemson vs. Florida State.  No longer the Bowden Bowl, but the stakes are still high this season.  Clemson is trying to make their first ACC championship game.  Bowden’s long time defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews announced this would be his last season.  I think Clemson is an 8.5 favorite, but the game will be much closer.  Tigers win 28-24.

 

Big East

 

Cincinnati vs. Connecticut.  The Bearcats are undefeated and trying to keep their BCS title game hopes alive.  UConn is coming off two emotional losses.  UC wins big 45-10.

 

Big Ten

 

OSU vs. Pa State.  Both teams are strong defensively.  Pa St’s offense is better than OSU’s offense.  OSU’s special teams are better than Pa State’s ST.  Game is at Happy Valley.  Last year, PSU scored a rare victory in the Shoe.  The loser likely gets a first class ticket to the Cap One Bowl.  Looks like Southwest should get some planes fueled in Cbus in late December because the Lions roar, 27-14.

 

Big 12

 

Oklahoma vs Nebraska.  This used to be the premier game in the Big Eight conference.  The luster has slipped lately, but Bo Pelini has the Huskers clawing their way back to FBS relevance again.  The Sooners win 27-17, but the game is close until late 4^th Quarter.

 

PAC 10

 

For the second straight week, Oregon is playing in the game of the week.  They play at Stanford.  Stanford is good team this season.  Don’t be surprised to see the Cardinal pull the upset.  Stanford wins 38-35.

 

SEC

 

Alabama vs. LSU.  Saban coached LSU to a BCS title in 2003, left for the NFL and returned to the SEC West as the Tide’s coach.  Both teams are playing well, and this will likely determine the SEC West title.  Game is at Bama.  I like the Tide in romp.  31-10.

Will Halloween Bring a Few Upsets in College Football?

Thoughts on Week Nine

 

Beer of the Week:  Yuengling Black and Tan. 

 

Food of the Week:  Tortellini with roasted peppers and marinara.

 

Sports Movie of the Week:  Hoosiers. 

 

Games of the Week

 

I went 9-3 in my predictions last week. However, I was a tad off on my analysis of how certain games would be played.

 

Week nine does not bring a lot of significant games, but there are just enough to make it interesting.

 

ACC

 

This is perhaps the least exciting week for ACC games.  I’ll pick the Miami vs. Wake game.  Miami is coming off a hard OT home loss to Clemson.  Wake is struggling after two straight losses.  Both teams are desperately seeking a win to stay in the conference race.  Wake will keep it close, but Miami is better and will win this game.  The U wins 35-21.

 

Big East

 

West Virginia vs. South Florida.  Memo to the Bulls… college football is played in October too.  Every season the Bulls rise up in September only to crash hard in October.  WVU is one of those teams quietly flying under the radar right now.  I like the Mountaineers to stay on pace with Pitt and Cincinnati atop the conference standings.  WVU wins 34-24.

 

Big Ten

 

Another unexciting week in the Big Ten, but it is likely a bowl positioning week.  The top game is Iowa vs. Indiana.  Don’t laugh.  Iowa is a strong team, but the Hawkeyes have tended to play at the level of their opponents all season.  Indiana generally plays well against Iowa.  I also think Iowa has played much better on the road than at home this season.  Iowa wins 27-17.

 

Big 12

 

Finally a game worth mentioning.  Texas at Oklahoma State.  Alright Cowboys, we continue to hear about your steady rise in the Big 12 South.  Are you ready to be relevant, or will you drop like a lead balloon again?  Every time you seem to get Texas in the right position, you snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  This year will be no different.  Texas wins 42-28.  Cowboys go back to the back to the middle of the pack.

 

PAC 10

 

The PAC 10 champion will likely be crowned this weekend as USC travels to Eugene to take on Oregon.  The Ducks looked lost in the season opener against Boise State, but they have quietly won six straight.  Can the Ducks dethrone the Trojans from PAC 10 supremacy?  This is the toughest game to call this week.  I want to like the Ducks at home.  USC has struggled a little on the road and Autzen is always a tough stadium.  I just think in the end, USC pulls out the win, 27-24.

 

SEC

 

The annual Cocktail party has arrived.  Florida vs. Georgia.  Two years ago, Georgia throttled Florida.  Florida retuned the favor last year.  Georgia is not a good team this season, but Florida has been struggling due to injuries and an unproductive offense. This is usually the type of game where Tebow shines.  He’ll need to protect the ball better though.  Florida wins 28-17. 

3.5 Questions

 

Will the BCS fail the FBS community once again?

 

October usually kills the hopes and dreams of many teams, but not this year.  Of course this can change on Halloween, but the Bowl Championship Series system is looking vulnerable once again.

 

Seven teams remain unbeaten after eight weeks.  Alabama, Boise State, Cincinnati, Florida, Iowa, TCU and Texas.  Only six can finish the season unbeaten since Bama and Florida would have to play each other in the SEC Championship game if they finish the regular season undefeated.  What will happen if six teams did go undefeated?

 

The truth is not much would happen.   Of course four teams would technically get cheated out of chance to play for a championship, but the college presidents and the NCAA don’t really care about these teams. They’ll continue arguing the BCS works well by getting the top two teams in the title game, and all is else is just an unfortunate consequence.  If integrity is a value that universities teach, give them a big, fat F on this assignment.

 

The likely scenario is three teams, maybe four end up undefeated.  Being left out would definitely be an injustice for the teams and the communities that support these teams. 

 

Is Iowa really good, or just opportunistic? 

 

Iowa’s a fundamentally sound team which makes them a strong team.  Statistically, the Hawkeyes are 18^th in total defense in the FBS, 6^th in turnover margin, 3^rd in yards penalized and 46^th in 3^rd down conversion percentage.  Offensively, the Hawkeyes are 87^th which is not good, but their road schedule thus far -  Pa St, Wisky and Mich St might have had an impact on this stat.  OSU will present a huge challenge at the Shoe on Nov 14^th, but don’t be surprised to see the Hawkeyes run the table.

 

Is the SEC official conspiracy real?

 

In the radio and TV world, there has been a lot of chatter around the SEC’s officiating, especially for Florida and Alabama games.  Accusations are flying around the airwaves about the SEC rigging conference play to make sure Bama and Florida make the SEC title game, and subsequently secure a national championship bid and a second BCS bowl bid. 

 

These accusations are nonsense.  First of all, referees make mistakes in big games.  It happens.  You cannot just isolate Florida and Bama games.  Second, the SEC would likely get a team in the title game and another BCS bowl slot without fixing the system.  The top two teams in the SEC are usually two of the top five teams in the country anyway.  Finally, Bama and Florida can likely survive a loss and still make the title game. 

 

I just don’t buy into the officiating conspiracy garbage being thrown around the media.  Unless theses two teams completely collapse, they’ll play for the conference championship and the winner gets a ticket to Pasadena to play for the championship.  End of discussion.

Beer and Football - nothing Better

Sales tip of the Day:  Learn to ask great questions.  All great salespeople know how to ask the smart questions that establish rapport and help build a solid business relationship.  Practice, Practice, Practice. 

 

Beer of the Week:  Chimay Trappist Ale.  Monks know how to brew some good beer.

 

I am missing a fantastic annual birthday party tonight where the main course is always Brats and Kraut.  Bummer.  If you want good comfort food, go find the best country pork ribs you can find, rub them with dry mustard, black pepper, salt, brown sugar and a little whiskey.  Slow cook them with some kraut.  Enjoy. 

 

 

Games of the Week

 

ACC

 

The ACC is the wackiest FBS conference.  Virginia’s the only undefeated team in conference play, Florida State is 1-3, the entire Atlantic Division has 2 or 3 conference losses, Miami throttled Ga Tech, Va Tech throttled Miami and Ga Tech beat Va Tech.  No team wants to step up and win the ACC.  Amazing. 

 

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia.  Tech secured the big win over the Hokies last weekend.  Can they give Virginia their first conference loss?  I’m not sold on the Cavs.  Their wins are against mediocre teams.  Tech should roll in this game, 31-14.

 

Big East

 

This is movement weekend in the Big East.  Four of the top five teams play each other.  Pitt squares off against South Florida and UConn plays West Virginia.  The Pitt/S.Fla game is probably the better game, but the more interesting story is how the Huskies will play after dealing with Jasper Howard’s death last Saturday.  WVU owns the series and should win a close game, 27-21.

 

Big Ten

 

After OSU’s collapse at Purdue last weekend, the Iowa Hawkeyes sit alone the conference standings.  This week, the Hawkeyes travel to Michigan State to battle a much improved Spartan team.  MSU is 3-1 in the Big Ten and looking to stay in the race for the conference championship.  This will be a close game, but I like Iowa to squeak out the win, 24-20.

 

Pa St travels to Michigan.  Penn State never plays well at the Big House, but the Lions need this win to stay in the Big Ten race.  Tough game to call.  I’ll call for the mild upset.  Wolverines win a shootout, 38-35. 

 

Big 12

 

After beating Oklahoma last weekend in a very ugly game, Texas is in the driver’s seat for the championship.  Don’t blow it is the motto.  The Longhorns first test is at Missouri.  The Tigers have a pretty good team, but should not pose any real threat to Texas.  Game is close, but Texas opens up a comfortable lead late in the 3^rd quarter.  Texas 38-18.

 

Oklahoma travels to Lawrence to take on the Kansas Jayhawks.  Kansas was rolling until last weekend when the Colorado Buffaloes pulled the upset.  I think the Jayhawks were looking ahead to this game.  Is it possible that Oklahoma, a legitimate preseason BCS championship contender, could have four losses midway through the 09 season?  Losing Bradford hurts, but this team should be better.  Oklahoma wins a very close game, 24-21.

 

PAC 10

 

Oregon sits alone at the top of the PAC 10 standings.  How long will they stay there?  Not long.  Oregon travels to Washington this week.  Can the Huskies catch the Ducks looking ahead to USC next week?  Yes.  UW wins a surprisingly low scoring game.  21-17. 

 

USC’s 2008 championship hopes went down the drain in a loss to Oregon State.  Think Pete Carroll has been reminding the Trojans all week about that devastating loss?  Of course.  USC might be looking ahead to the Oregon game too so don’t expect a blow out.  Trojans win 27-17. 

 

SEC

 

I’m tempted to say the Alabama vs. Tennessee game is the game of the week in the SEC, but I think the LSU vs. Auburn game has more ramifications in the SEC West race.  The loser is essentially out of contention; though the way the Bama’s playing, both teams might already be out of the race.  The last five LSU/Auburn games have been decided by a total of 19 points.  The game is in Death Valley so I’ll give the Bayou Tigers the edge, but this will be another close game,17-14. 

 

Besides Auburn, Bama’s closest mortal enemy is Tennessee.  These two schools hate each other, and that is good for the fans.  The Tide spanked the Vols last year in Knoxville.  Expect more of the same this year.  The Tide rolls 28-10. 

 

Non-Conference

 

TCU vs BYU.  If TCU wants to make it to a BCS bowl game, they have to beat BYU in Provo.  Both teams are playing well.  This will be a mild upset.  BYU wins, 31-27. 

 

The Catholic Bowl.  ND vs. BC.  Don’t be fooled.  The series is evenly split, and BC’s won six straight.  The Irish are playing at home and should get a fairly comfortable win, 35-21. 

OSU's Offense

 

News around Columbus is swirling about whether Ohio State’s offense be better with Terrelle Pryor playing wide receiver?  The quick answer is no.  OSU does not have an effective replacement at this point to plug in at QB.  Unfortunately, the Buckeye community is now painfully aware that Pryor’s success as a freshman was largely based on Robiskie, Hartline and Wells being threats. If one of the principle goals of coaching is to place your talent in the right positions to maximize your team’s success, Tressel should consider developing Pryor as a wide receiver.  Here’s why:

 

I might be with the pack on this one, but 18 games into a career should be producing better performances.  Pryor is the leader of an offense that is currently ranked 91^st in FBS in total yards per game.  The offense should not be ranked this low, especially when the defenses they’ve faced are 9^th, 31^st, 38^th, 71^st, 82^nd, 105^th and 109^th in the FBS.  Minnesota is 92^nd – can we expect better?

 

Two series against Purdue provide perfect insight into why a change on offense is necessary.  The first was the debacle of getting the ball on Purdue’s 31 yard line and the offense not only loses yardage, but turns the ball over.  The second was the 1^st and 10 from the Purdue one in the fourth quarter.  Down 23-7, a TD shifts the momentum to OSU and probably forces Purdue to press a little to score again.  With a 6’6” QB, three runs over Brewter’s back would have ensured a TD.  OSU settled for a field goal.  Instead of a momentum shift, Purdue got the victory by forcing the field goal. 

 

The mistakes made against Purdue are made by inferior teams with inferior coaching – not a common occurrence under Tressel.  If Tressel deserved credit for not losing the games he should win, then he deserves a lot of blame when he does lose these types of games.  Tressel’s offensively philosophy is to not put the defense in bad positions.  I would say this offense is failing miserably, and a change is warranted.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I think Tressel is one of the best coaches in the business.  He deserves the right to steer his team how he wants.  I just think his coaching philosophy works best when the offense is serviceable.  Sadly, it is not. 

 

In 2007, OSU was 53^rd in total offense.  In 2008, 69^th.  I already mentioned that OSU is currently 91^st.  Three seasons is called a trend, but I would argue it is systemic. From 04-06, OSU finished 90^th, 30^th and 29^th in total offense. 

 

By comparison, from 2006-2008, Florida’s offense finished 10^th, 16^th and 9^th.  USC’s finished 27^th, 27^th and 13^th.  Texas’ finished 26^th, 13^th and 11^th.  Perhaps it is worth mentioning that OSU is 1-4 against these teams since 05. 

 

Is having a good, effective offense not a reasonable goal?  How many championships have been potentially lost by not building a strong offense to go along with the good defenses?  I have seen a change on the defensive side of the ball in terms of recruiting to fit a more modern style of defensive play.  Is this not possible on the other side of the ball?

 

Tressel’s been called a perfectionist.  Great.  I'm sorry to say that I see this characteristic more frequently from Meyer, Saban and Carroll than Tressel.  Maybe I am crazy, but the players appear to be having fun playing for these coaches.  I have not seen that enthusiasm from OSU’s players in a long time, and yet my passion for excellence from the Buckeyes burns stronger. 

 

Some might question my Buckeye loyalty.  Nothing is further from the truth.  I always bleed Scarlet and Gray.  The businessman in me just expects a better product than we’re receiving.