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Urban Meyer

Urban Meyer shocked the college football world yesterday by announcing that he will step down as head coach of the Florida Gators after the Sugar Bowl on January 1^st.  What is not so shocking is the reason why.  The stress of being a head coach is causing him health problems that he can no longer ignore. 

 

Napoleon Hill said, “Great achievement is usually born of great sacrifice, and is never the result of selfishness.”  Meyer’s commitment to this principle has earned him the highest honor in the college coaching profession – two national championships.  Unfortunately, this sacrifice brought a health issues penalty that was beyond his control.

 

Give Meyer some credit for recognizing that his health is a higher priority than coaching football.  Anyone who is a competitor knows the difficulty of saying I can no longer give elite level effort.  Looking in that mirror and admitting vulnerability is painful.  Meyer’s acceptance took some time to occur, but he finally realized could not coach his way out of the problem. 

 

College football needs more Meyer’s in the profession.  He’s innovative, a teacher and a motivator.  The game will move on, but his style will be missed beyond the Florida Gators.  Hopefully he will recover and return to the sidelines one day. 

College Bowl Top Five

Seems fitting that college football bowl season is beginning today with DC getting about a foot of snow right now.  A lot of stories have been written, but here are my top five games.

Alabama vs Texas.  Hard to not love the match up against two of the most storied programs in college football history.  Texas slept walked through the regular season, barely cracking a sweat except against Texas in the Big 12 Championship game.  Bama had a few close calls, but pretty much dominated the SEC.  Tide running back Mark Ingram became the first Alabama Heisman Trophy winner last week.  Recent history suggests this favors Texas though. 

The key to the game will be Texas' offense against Bama's phenomenal defense.  Can McCoy and Co. deliver?  I think they do.  The stage is set for a great game.  Texas wins 24-21.

Oregon vs. Ohio State.  Oregon has a high powered offense led by QB Jeremiah Masoli.  Ohio State is led by a quick, opportunistic defense.  PAC 10 has dominated the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl this decade.  Ohio State has not won a big non-conference/bowl game since 2005.  Can the Buckeyes get back on track?  Can Pryor deliver on the big stage, and set up the high expectations for 2010?  The winner will likely be a top 3 preseason pick next year.  Defense wins championships, right?  Go with the Buckeyes, 27-23.

TCU vs. Boise State.  Forget the talk about this being a charity bowl game to appease the non-automatic qualifier conferences.  Forget the conspiracy talk about the BCS not matching TCU or Boise against an automatic qualifier.  The Fiesta Bowl almost always delivers fireworks, and this game will be phenomenal.  TCU wins a high scoring game, 45-37.

Arizona vs. Nebraska.  I love the Holiday Bowl.  The scoring is generally high, but not this year.  Nebraska has a great defense which will keep the scoring in the teens.  Give Mike Stoops some credit.  His first few seasons in the desert were abysmal.  He is starting to deliver.  Similar to the Rose Bowl, the winner of this game will be a high preseason pick in 2010.  The game will go down to wire.  Nebraska wins 18-17.  

FSU vs. WVU.  Bobby Bowden's last game and he's playing against the school he coached before Florida State.  Florida State lack speed and WVU has speed.  That should be the difference.  A remarkable career will end in a loss.  WVU wins 35-28.

In today's games, in the New Mexico Bowl, Fresno will soundly beat Wyoming, 42-21.  Ryan Matthews will run wild against the Cowboys.  In the St. Petersburg Bowl, Rutgers will be Central Florida 35-14. 

Title Weekend, Bama Should Roll

Championship weekend got off to a hot start Thursday night as the Oregon Ducks beat the Oregon State Beavers 37-33 in the Civil War sending the Ducks to the Rose Bowl.  Oregon versus Ohio State should be a great game.

 

Today’s slate brings us the CUSA, SEC, Big 12 and ACC Championship games, and technically the Big East championship game since the winner of the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati game wins the Big East.  Central Michigan beat Ohio University to win the MAC last night. 

 

SEC

 

A rematch of last year’s SEC championship game.  Undefeated #1 Florida against undefeated #2 Alabama.  Tim Tebow is seeking his second SEC championship (as a starter) and his third BCS Title trip.  The Heisman Trophy is also on the line.  Bama is trying to get to their first SEC Championship since 1999.  Running back Mark Ingram is also a legitimate Heisman candidate.  A strong performance against the Gators might propel him to the top.

 

Both defenses are elite. There are few, if any, weaknesses on this side of the ball for both the Tide and Gators.  Bama’s defense might have the edge now that Florida defensive end Carlos Dunlop was suspended for the game following a DUI earlier this week. 

 

The key for Bama, stop Tebow from being Tebow.  If Bama can get to Tebow and put pressure on him, the Tide will win this game.  This is a huge if considering no team has really been able to get to Tebow this year, but no other team has had Bama’s defense either.  Saban will have his team ready to attack.

 

The keys for Florida is stop Ingram and disrupt Tide QB Greg McElroy.  Again, no other team has yet to do this for an entire game this year, but Florida has the defensive talent to stop Bama’s offense.  The loss of Dunlop will hurt though.

 

The money says to go with Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow.  I am going to side with Bama though.  The loss of Dunlop is going to impact the Gators ability to stop the run.  Bama wins 21-17. 

 

Big 12

 

Texas vs. Nebraska.  Two great programs collide once again.  Texas is led by Heisman Trophy candidate Colt McCoy.  His offense is clicking at the right time of the season, and is clearly the favorite in this game.  Under second year head coach Bo Pelini, Nebraska is back playing for the championship.  As expected, the Cornhuskers’ defense is ranked in the top 20 in the FBS.  The defense is led by Ndamukong Suh who is a beast in the middle of the Dline. 

 

This game will be close until Texas opens up a comfortable lead in the third quarter.  This will force Nebraska to press on offense and make mistakes.  Nebraska is still a season or two away from being in elite again.  Texas wins 42-21 and goes to the BCS title game again.

 

ACC

 

Talk about a downer.  Georgia Tech and Clemson were riding high before last weekend when an average Georgia team beat the Yellow Jackets and an average South Carolina team throttled the Tigers.  These two defeats did not help the image of the ACC.  That being said, Clemson is playing for their first ACC title since 1991 and Georgia Tech is looking for their first title since 1998. 

 

These teams collided in the second game of the 2009 season.  Georgia Tech won 30-27 in a back and forth game.  Look for more of the same tomorrow.  Clemson will exact revenge this time.  Tigers win 34-27.

 

Big East

 

Cincinnati vs. Pitt.  Amid the Notre Dame coaching controversy is Cincinnati’s quest for a Big East title and an undefeated regular season.  Head Coach Brian Kelly is the obvious leader for the open position at ND, but has this impacted his Bearcats’ preparations for Pitt?  Probably a little. 

 

Amazingly, Pitt head coach Dave Wannstedt has turned his team into a winner.  They slipped a little last week against rival West Virginia, but the Panthers are solid and should give the Bearcats a tough game.   Cinci will win the game, but they’ll have to come from behind to do it.  Bearcats win 28-24. 

 

Conference USA

 

Houston vs. East Carolina.  Houston is explosive.  With wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State, the Cougars have proven they can run with the big boys.  East Carolina has played well down the stretch, but the Pirates lack some of the power they has last season.  This will be a close game with a lot of offense which favors Houston.  Cougars win 45-42, and get their first league title since 2006. 

 

All the games should be good this weekend.  The upset will be Bama over Florida, but don’t be surprised if Pitt beats Cinci.

3.5 Questions

 

Will the BCS fail the FBS community once again?

 

October usually kills the hopes and dreams of many teams, but not this year.  Of course this can change on Halloween, but the Bowl Championship Series system is looking vulnerable once again.

 

Seven teams remain unbeaten after eight weeks.  Alabama, Boise State, Cincinnati, Florida, Iowa, TCU and Texas.  Only six can finish the season unbeaten since Bama and Florida would have to play each other in the SEC Championship game if they finish the regular season undefeated.  What will happen if six teams did go undefeated?

 

The truth is not much would happen.   Of course four teams would technically get cheated out of chance to play for a championship, but the college presidents and the NCAA don’t really care about these teams. They’ll continue arguing the BCS works well by getting the top two teams in the title game, and all is else is just an unfortunate consequence.  If integrity is a value that universities teach, give them a big, fat F on this assignment.

 

The likely scenario is three teams, maybe four end up undefeated.  Being left out would definitely be an injustice for the teams and the communities that support these teams. 

 

Is Iowa really good, or just opportunistic? 

 

Iowa’s a fundamentally sound team which makes them a strong team.  Statistically, the Hawkeyes are 18^th in total defense in the FBS, 6^th in turnover margin, 3^rd in yards penalized and 46^th in 3^rd down conversion percentage.  Offensively, the Hawkeyes are 87^th which is not good, but their road schedule thus far -  Pa St, Wisky and Mich St might have had an impact on this stat.  OSU will present a huge challenge at the Shoe on Nov 14^th, but don’t be surprised to see the Hawkeyes run the table.

 

Is the SEC official conspiracy real?

 

In the radio and TV world, there has been a lot of chatter around the SEC’s officiating, especially for Florida and Alabama games.  Accusations are flying around the airwaves about the SEC rigging conference play to make sure Bama and Florida make the SEC title game, and subsequently secure a national championship bid and a second BCS bowl bid. 

 

These accusations are nonsense.  First of all, referees make mistakes in big games.  It happens.  You cannot just isolate Florida and Bama games.  Second, the SEC would likely get a team in the title game and another BCS bowl slot without fixing the system.  The top two teams in the SEC are usually two of the top five teams in the country anyway.  Finally, Bama and Florida can likely survive a loss and still make the title game. 

 

I just don’t buy into the officiating conspiracy garbage being thrown around the media.  Unless theses two teams completely collapse, they’ll play for the conference championship and the winner gets a ticket to Pasadena to play for the championship.  End of discussion.

Five Thoughts Midway Through the 2009 Season

Five thoughts midway into the 2009 season.

 

1.  Is it my imagination, or is the year of the defense?  After six weeks, I have not watched an elite offense.  At least not out of some of the top ranked teams.  Florida, Bama, USC, OSU, Texas, Va Tech – functional, but hardly impressive.

 

I am not complaining.  I like good defensive football.  I’m just surprised.  With Tebow, McCoy, Bradford and many other offensive stars back from last season, I thought this would be the year of the offense. 

 

2.  Tennessee and LSU have shown the path to beating Florida, does anyone have the horses to execute the plan?  I think someone will and it might not be Bama.  The team that can control the line of scrimmage and run the ball effectively (big ifs), should be able to do this.  USC comes to mind. 

 

3.  Is Virginia Tech improved, or has the competition been weaker?  I think a little of both.  The Hokies throttled the U and BC, but struggled a bit with Duke and Nebraska.  Tech is playing well and the running game is getting better, but against a strong defense, the Hokies will struggle.

 

4.  Is Iowa the best team in the Big Ten?  No.  The Hawkeyes are a solid team, but they play at Wisky and Michigan State the next two weeks.  I think they drop one, maybe even both games. 

 

5.  There are too many mediocre teams in every conference that should have been better.  Here’s the list:

 

ACC

 

NC

NC State

Fla St

 

Big East

 

Pitt

Rutgers

 

Big Ten

 

Northwestern

Minnesota

Michigan State

 

Big 12

 

Texas Tech

Texas A&M

Baylor

 

SEC

 

Ol Miss

Ga

TN

 

PAC 10

 

Oreg St

Zona

UCLA

SEC, Surprises, Week Six Thoughts and Tebow

Last week I went 4-4 in games of the week.  Not great, but could be a lot of worse.  As I thought, October has already brought some surprises.  Oklahoma lost again which essentially kicks them out of the national title race.  Michigan lost for the first time this season which is not that surprising, but losing to their little brother in back to back seasons since the mid 60’s is surprising.  Florida State is officially the fourth best team in Florida .  As strange as this may seem, it has almost been a decade since the Seminoles were relevant.  The grumblings in Tallahassee have started, but I’m in the camp that believes Bowden has earned the right to coach as long as he wants. 

This week brings some critical conference games.  The games of the week are:

ACC

Virginia Tech vs. Boston College .  Can Beamer hypnotize his team into thinking this is the ACC conference championship game instead of regular season match up?  BC has beaten Va Tech three straight times in the regular season, but the Hokies have returned the favor in the ACC title game the last two years.  This weekend is homecoming in Blacksburg so I think the Hokies win, but it might be closer than expected.  31-21. 

Big East

The real game of the week is next Thursday when South Florida and Cincinnati collide. For this weekend, the best match up is Pittsburgh vs. Connecticut .  Both teams are pretty good and the winner will likely have an outside chance at the Big East title.  Pitt wins a low scoring game 17-14. 

At this point, is there another conference with more balance than the Big East?  Rutgers, Uconn, South Fla , Cinci, WVA, Pitt are all pretty good.  Even the Cuse is better.  Louisville is terrible.  This will be a good race to watch. 

Big 10

Wisconsin vs. Ohio State .  The Badgers have been quietly going about their business this year.  Their solid running game coupled with a good defense is making the Badgers a tough team.  Wisky’s secondary is suspect, and their tendency to let off the pedal could hurt them though.  The Buckeyes appear to have recovered from the loss to USC in week two, but their opponents the last three weeks have been awful.  If the defense can stop the run and Pryor can manage a balanced attack with no turnovers, Ohio State should get a nice victory.  Ohio State wins 28-24. 

The Michigan vs. Iowa game is always a good one.  Iowa is undefeated, but has played pretty much to the level of their competition.  Michigan plays well in spurts and then awful in other stretches.  I think both teams are overrated.  This game should settle fourth place in the Big 10.  Michigan gets the mild upset and wins on the road, 27-18. 

Big 12

The big game was last night between Nebraska and Missouri .  For three quarters, this was a sloppy game being played in sloppy weather.  Missou had the game in control heading into the fourth quarter until the Cornhuskers rallied from 12 down to score 27 unanswered points.  Bo Pelini is doing a great job.  Nebraska ’s defense is strong.  I like the Huskers to win the North.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M.  The loser of this game will likely finish fourth in the Big 12 South.  OSU is coming off a bye week, but how will the Cowboys cope with the shocking suspension of Dez Bryant for lying to the NCAA?  A&M is coming off a huge loss to Arkansas .  The game is in College Station , but the Aggies still look like an average team.  I like OSU to win a close game 27-21.

PAC 10

This is bowl positioning week in the PAC 10.  Zona plays UW, Stanford plays Oreg St and Oreg plays UCLA.  The Stanford vs OSU game will likely be the best one.  Harbaugh has the Cardinal playing well, but the game is at OSU.  This should be a typical PAC 10 shootout.  I’m calling for the mild upset, OSU wins 38-31.

SEC

A huge weekend in the SEC.  Obviously the key game is Florida at LSU, but Bama plays Ol Miss, Auburn goes to Arkansas , Georgia plays Tennessee and even the SC vs KY game should be interesting.  We’ll know a lot about the SEC after this weekend.  I like Bama, Auburn , GA and KY. 

In the big game, Florida is the reigning champion with an all world line up led by Tim Tebow.  The only problem is Tebow is coming off a concussion sustained two weeks ago in the Kentucky game.  Will he play? Should he play?  I think Meyer sits Tebow.  John Brantley is a capable back up and should be able to manage this game for the Gators.

We all know that LSU rarely lose night games at home in Death Valley .  The Tigers always seem to find a way to win.  Can they pull the huge upset this year though?  Doubtful.  I think LSU is good and I think this game means more to the Tigers than the Gators, but I don’t feel they are strong enough on the defensive line to win.  Florida wins 31-17. 

A side note.  Even if Florida losses this game, they’ll play for the SEC title and a likely berth into the national championship.  The Gators will cruise through the rest of the games (sorry Georgia ). This is why I think Meyer should not play Tebow, is better off letting him have an additional week to heal from the hit he sustained. 

Possible Upsets this Week

LSU over Fla

Michigan over Iowa

Maryland over Wake

Arkansas over Auburn

Division III, Top Ten and Heisman Leaders

In light of the upcoming game between Mt. Union Purple Raiders and the Capital Crusaders this Saturday, I think the time is right to give some recognition to Division III programs.  The players at these schools do not get scholarships, and quite often work just as hard as the athletes in FBS, FCS, Division II and NAIA.  I should note that I am partial to the Div III level because I went to Capital.

 

I have heard too frequently that the Division III skill level is not good.  In comparison, the overall skill level is not as deep as the other divisions; this hardly means the cupboard is bare.  Current NFL players London Fletcher and Pierre Garcon both played at Division III programs (John Carroll and Mt. Union ). There about ten other players on NFL rosters in 2009.

 

I’ve also heard that the games are less enjoyable to watch.  I wonder if any of the critics have actually watched a game.   Anyone catch the Trinity lateral play over Milsaps a couple of seasons ago?  This might be a top five play in college football history.  Furthermore, Mt. Union, Wisconsin Whitewater, Linfield, Mary Hardin Baylor, Wartburg, St. Johns are all consistently good and fun to watch.  If you get a chance, go watch a game.

 

Weekly Top Ten

 

Florida.  Until the defending champs lose, they get the top spot.

Texas.  Colt McCoy and Co. lead a balanced attack and the defense is pretty good. 

Alabama.  Strong defense, serviceable offense.  This should be enough to reach the Iron Bowl undefeated.

USC.  Despite the loss at Washington, USC is a top five team.  Tiger fans might be upset, but USC is more balances right now.

LSU.  No losses earns the Tigers a #5 ranking, but I have a feeling the wheels are going to fall off this weekend. 

Boise State.  This team is legitimate.  The Broncos will likely go undefeated and earn another BCS bowl bid.

Cincinnati.  The game at South Fla will prove a lot, but the Bearcats have a few quality wins that give them a nod right now.

Auburn.  Chizik and Malzahn are getting the last laugh.  Arkansas is a nemesis so a win there on Saturday will be huge.

Ohio State.  Defense makes this team legitimate.  I want to see how the offense performs against a legitimate defense before I endorse the team for a top five ranking.

Virginia Tech.  Defense and special teams will carry the Hokies to their third straight ACC title.

 

Heisman Hopefuls

 

Tim Tebow.  If Tebow plays in the LSU game and wins, Archie Griffin’s status as the only two time Heisman winner is in serious jeopardy. 

Colt McCoy.  I think McCoy will heat up in October and finish the season as the favorite. 

Tony Pike.  Darkhorse candidate is looking good right now.  However, the Bearcats always seem to drop a weird game.  A loss would kill Pike’s chances.

End of September Thoughts

The first month of the 2009 college football season is in the books.  After four games, we know a lot about the direction of this season.  With this in mind, here is a breakdown of the surprises and disappointments to date.  (as usual, this can change by week six.  I reserve the right to frequently change my mind)

Surprises:

Houston is good enough to compete in the Big 12.  The Cougars are 2-0 against the South division which is considered one of the toughest in college football.  The WAC and MWC usually generate the BCS buzz, but this year may belong to Conference USA.  If they beat Mississippi State in two weeks, that's a 3-0 sweep of the big boys.  Houston's conference schedule is manageable so they might just be BCS buster this year.  TCU and Boise are also in the mix which I'm sure will stoke the playoff fire as the season progresses.

Auburn's offensive turnaround is nothing short of a miracle.  Last year, Auburn averaged 17.3 points per game.  This year, 45.25.  This is close to a 300% gain in points per game.  Guz Malzahn did wonders for Arkansas and Tulsa, and is now doing it with the Tigers.  Considered an afterthought in the SEC race, Auburn is a legitimate title contender.  

Interjection:  How good would Ohio State be this season with an OC like Malzahn?  Seriously.

Missouri has not missed a beat after losing Chase Daniels, Chase Kaufman and Jeremy Macklin.  In case you wondered, these three combined for just over 7000 yards of offense and over 40 TD's last year.  This year, the Tigers are 16th in total offense and 20th in scoring average.  Missou's competition has been pretty good too with Illinois, BG and Nevada.  Their conference schedule is brutal drawing Texas and OSU from the South, but I like their chances in the Big 12 North race.

Wisconsin is 4-0 and playing much better than they were at the end of 2008.  All of the games have been at home and the competition has been just ok, but for a team that lost their identity last year, 2009 is starting well for the Badgers.  October will prove challenging with games at Minn and OSU and at home against Iowa and Purdue.  Splitting these four games likely means making a good bowl game.

Disappointments:

Michigan State.  Coming off a 9-4 season with 15 returning starters, expectations were high in East Lansing to compete for a Big Ten title.  Sitting at 1-3 with losses to ND, Wisky and Cent Mich and the only win is against FCS Montana State, the only conclusion is 2009 is not going well for the Spartans.  The road schedule in the Big Ten is pretty tame with games at Minn, Purdue and Ill.  A rebound is possible, but not likely considering the defense is weak. 

Notre Dame.  I know the Irish are 3-1, but this team has looked pretty average in beating Mich St and Purdue.  ND could easily be sitting 1-3.  They're not, and that is a testament to better leadership on the field, but the special season most pundits were predicting is in jeopardy.

Heisman Hopefuls stats.  Don't get me wrong, Tebow and McCoy are having fine seasons and will be vying for the hardware at the end of the season, but comparatively, their stats are below expectations right now.  With Tebow's concussion, McCoy can gain a huge advantage in the coming weeks.  Should be an interesting race.

That's the list for now. 

Top 10 Questions for the 2009 Season

The 2009 season begins tomorrow and here are my top 10 questions.

1.  Will any team be able to compete against Florida?  With 18 returning starters, the defending national champs are a lock for the SEC title game, and most likely the BCS Title game.  Tebow's leadership, Meyer's discipline and a ferocious defense will be a difficult to overcome for any team.  The schedule is pretty kind too.  The only crack I can see is the loss of Dan Mullen.

2.  Will the Heisman race stay hot throughout the season?  The last two winners, Tebow and Bradford, are back.  Add in McCoy and there is no debating that we are looking at the best Heisman race in a long time.  Is there a darkhorse?  Yes.  The list includes Jahvid Best, Jonathan Dwyer, Jimmy Clausen and maybe Javon Snead. 

3.  Will USC see a drop off with the personnel losses?  USC lost Sanchez, their LB corp, most of their DL and both coordinators.  No one could blame them for a down season, but Carroll is an elite coach who will have this team ready to compete.  Besides, the offense is loaded and should carry the team until the D catches up in mid season.  

4.  Will Texas run the table and make it to the BCS title game?  The Longhorns were victims of the Big 12 rules last season, and did not get to play in the BCS title game against Florida.  Texas controls their own destiny and needs to go undefeated to make the title game.  I think they make it. 

5.  Will Ohio State's offensive line play be improved, and will Terrelle Pryor make the leap from athlete to QB?  The Buckeyes' offensive lines has underperformed for three straight seasons.  For this team to be great, a huge improvement is necessary.  Coaches are relying on Michigan transfer Justin Boren to establish the nasty tone needed to dominate a game.  Pryor is coming off a solid freshman season.  The chains will be loosened this year.  The expectations are high for a more solid passing game.  The word is he is ready to deliver.

6.  Will Notre Dame ride a relatively manageable schedule back into the BCS?  This is the season where Charlie Weis' genius should come to fruition.  His players are seasoned.  The leaders are now upperclassmen with 1-2 years experience.  Anything less than a nine win regular season would be a disaster. 

7.  Who will be this year's BCS buster.  For the last few years, there has been some non traditional teams make it to a BCS bowl game.  Kansas, Utah, Boise, Hawaii.  Which team will make it this year?  I don' think this happens in 09.  With ten slots available, I see two SEC teams, two Big 12 teams, one ACC team, one Big East team, two Big 10 teams, one PAC 10 team and Notre Dame.  Perhaps the Pac 10 and Big 10 flip.  The room for error is minimal.  I think Boise, Utah, TCU and BYU all lose a game and that will kill their chances at a BCS game. 

8.  Which highly ranked team will go bust?  Oklahoma State is on my radar.  OSU will score a lot of points, but the good teams will keep the Cowboys offense on the sidelines and keep the O in check.  I think they lose three games which is not a complete bust, but certainly kills any chance at a BCS game or Top 10 ranking.  Other teams on the radar - NC, Cal, Ol Miss, Iowa and LSU.

9.  Will the SEC's non conference regular season record improve?  The SEC has dominated their bowl games for the last three years, but the regular season record against BCS conference opponents has been pretty bad.  Losses to Wake, WVU, Duke, Ga Tech, Clemson, UCLA cannot be ignored.  Early season tests  - Ga at Ok St and Bama vs Va Tech will show just how good the SEC is this season.

10.  Will the Big 10 win more bowl games?  The Big 10's image has taken a hit lately largely due to some OSU losses in big games, but this can all change quickly.  The Big 10 is 4-4 against the SEC the last few years which suggests the conference is not far off from being elite again, but some big wins are needed to overcome the general impression that the conference can no longer compete in big games.